Will America Look South? US Policy in Latin America

By Michael Shifter

In the final presidential debate, Latin Americans understandably took note when Governor Mitt Romney emphasised that the region represented a 'huge opportunity' for expanded trade with the United States. President Barack Obama's omission of Latin America in his list of regions where relations with the US had improved in the past several years set off a burst of tweets among Latin Americans.

By now, Latin Americans have learned not to expect much of US policy towards the region.  While they were heartened by Romney's mention and disappointed by Obama's oversight, they are sufficiently discerning to know that Latin America has been -- and will likely continue to be -- a low priority for the US. Having followed the debates, they realise that the United States will for the foreseeable future be largely consumed, and constrained, by its enormous domestic challenges.

Violence in Mexico

Yet, even in light of low expectations, it was striking that the region's foreign policy challenges received such scant attention in this presidential campaign.  Mexico, arguably the US's most important relationship in the world, was barely mentioned. No two countries engage each other more intensely on a daily basis and US trade with Mexico is nearing $500 billion per year. The bilateral agenda is wide-ranging, and the connections between the two countries are profound.  Whatever happens in Mexico affects the United States in significant ways - and vice versa.

While there is a lot of good economic news to report about Mexico, it is also true that the country is undergoing a wave of drug-fuelled violence that in the past six years has claimed some 60,000 lives.  Is the United States doing enough - and doing the right things - to assist its closest neighbour and ally to deal with its serious security problems? 

The security situation in Central America's 'northern triangle' of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador has been deteriorating.  The next US administration will have little choice but to deal with the deleterious effects of such widespread criminal violence. Pressure will come from across the Latin American political spectrum to rethink an anti-drug policy that has yielded disappointment results and is widely regarded as hindering democratic progress in the region.

The Domestic Significance of Latin American Policy

As if the foreign policy arguments for focusing on the region were not compelling enough, the failure to debate Latin America policy is all the more striking because of the undisputed significance of the Hispanic vote in the election. People of Mexican decent constitute roughly two-thirds of the Hispanic population in the US, and Central Americans also make up an important share. To be sure, Obama is heavily favoured among Hispanic voters and he remains popular throughout much of Latin America.  Still, the absence of any serious discussion of how the US could more effectively help its closest neighbours confront their security predicament is inexplicable on both domestic and foreign policy grounds.  

The Cuban Challenge

As with all US presidents going back to Eisenhower, either Obama or Romney will have to deal with the Cuba challenge. The USA's embargo towards Cuba has remained in force since 1960 and, on this issue, isolates itself throughout Latin American and the world. It is widely perceived to be unduly influenced by US domestic politics, particularly the Cuban-American community. In the event of Fidel Castro's death or other changes in Cuba, the US will need to be prepared to respond constructively and consider whether normal diplomatic relations would be a better way to help bring about peaceful, democratic change. 

Steps for the Future

In addition, although America sees immigration as a domestic, not foreign, policy, the issue has immense implications for relations between the United States and Latin America.  America's inability to fix its broken immigration system breeds frustration in a number of countries, especially Mexico and in Central America. Even if comprehensive reform is not politically feasible in the near term, any steps towards greater opening and better treatment of unauthorised Latin American migrants in the US will be applauded in the region and help improve broader hemispheric cooperation.  

Forging deeper economic relations between the United States and Latin America will be a key challenge, and opportunity, for the next administration. Latin America is crucial for U.S. trade (the US exports twice as much to Mexico as to China) and for its supply of oil and minerals. Within a decade, Brazil and Mexico may be two of the three largest oil suppliers to the United States.  Brazil is already the sixth largest economy in the world-- and is a regional powerhouse and increasingly influential global player. 

Romney is indeed right that, for the US, Latin America offers a 'huge opportunity.'   But to take advantage of this either he or Obama will have to energise the listless policy both political parties seem to have settled for. On the trade issue, and with Brazil, this means dealing seriously with agricultural subsidies. On other questions that stand in the way of a more productive US-Latin American relationship, the next administration will have to invest political capital.  

The views expressed here are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of RUSI.

Michael Shifter is President of the Inter-American Dialogue. He is also an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.