http://www.rusi.org/ web@rusi.org en-us Copyright 2013 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C519CED13574DC/ Iran's Guardian Council has just published its list of approved candidates for presidential elections -notable for its absence of challengers to the Supreme Leader. The eventual winner needs to repair external alliances and re-energise faith in the Islamic Republic amongst Iranians. 2013-05-22 17:08:56 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A5183D30528C3E/ While Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz may prove a bluff, Iran’s developing naval capability should be a matter of concern 2013-05-03 16:08:54 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A5183D2D92BD4E/ The lack of progress at the Almaty talks points to a deep-seated problem: the continuing decline in reciprocal confidence 2013-05-03 16:08:11 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C51828A37C1F5A/ Recent allegations by the Canadian authorities about Al-Qa'ida in Iran has ignited a flurry of commentary. Experience suggests however that the release of limited intelligence of this nature is fraught with dangers for the public trust and risks being counter-productive. 2013-05-02 16:49:02 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:A517E5BC42E13D/ When news of Stuxnet first emerged, commentators highlighted its apparent effectiveness in stalling Iran’s nuclear programme. However, evidence suggests that this claim is easily refuted (Free Access) 2013-04-29 12:38:45 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N51794FF96792A/ Iran may inadvertently cross unclear US and Israeli 'red lines' with its nuclear programme and trigger military action, warns a new briefing paper by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). 2013-04-26 01:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C515C3E388CC84/ While all eyes are on Almaty and Istanbul, what happens in Luxembourg and London might also affect nuclear talks with Iran. Sanctions are coming under successful legal challenge. 2013-04-03 15:44:15 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C514F1AC43AAD3/ The Iraq War emboldened hawks in the United States and Iran. Increasingly obsessed with each other, they shunned pragmatism for an ideology of confrontation which saw both sides expend political and economic capital they could not afford for ambitions that were beyond them. 2013-03-24 15:36:39 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A513A108C69894/ With the P5+1 offering a more generous package to Iran, what are the prospects for further diplomatic progress before the Iranian elections in June? 2013-03-08 16:23:53 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C512E46A3F34E1/ The Iranian regime is none too pleased with Argo winning best film at the Oscars. It feeds into Iranian conspiracy theories about the United States, and highlights the tricky role the current Supreme Leader had during the US Embassy Hostage Crisis of 1979. 2013-02-27 17:59:39 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C512B4D561318E/ There has been much talk about a fatwa - a juristic ruling issued by Iran's Supreme Leader outlawing the use of nuclear weapons. But how binding is this ruling and has it actually been made? 2013-02-25 11:42:46 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C5113E659A548E/ Ayatollah Khamenei has firmly rejected the prospect of direct US-Iran talks, but his remarks should be read in the context of Iran's fractured domestic politics. Iran's talks with the P5+1 must progress first. 2013-02-07 17:39:38 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:V511379D402B52/ Jon Snow, David Miliband and Shashank Joshi discuss the ways forward for the Iranian nuclear crisis. 2013-02-07 09:55:32 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N51124B99177D5/ RUSI experts Shashank Joshi and Professor Ali Ansari give evidence to the House of Commons Foreig Affairs Committee. 2013-02-06 12:26:07 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A50F81CD404641/ To what extent is the US-led sanctions regime likely to succeed in compelling Iran to curb its nuclear programme? 2013-01-17 15:48:02 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C50EED63E6E763/ While the leadership transitions of 2012 have altered this year's political landscape, they have left the nuclear agenda for 2013 regrettably unchanged. Thankfully, this new backdrop may provide opportunities to find new solutions to old problems. 2013-01-10 14:57:26 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:V50D2EF42C6B36/ Shahashank Joshi, Research Fellow, RUSI, outlines the main conclusions of his RUSI Whitehall Paper, examining the context of the Iran's quest for a nuclear capability 2012-12-15 10:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C50879F7673361/ RUSI's third annual survey of its defence and security community assesses the role and place in the United States in the world. Published during the US presidential election campaign, the survey takes stock of the Obama presidency and the proespects for US foreign policy. 2012-10-24 09:09:03 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C508670CC7892A/ Retrenchment will be the dominating theme for US foreign policy whoever wins the presidential elections on 6 November. The next president will face a protectionist Congress; a military undergoing huge defence cuts; and a public opinion that has lost interest in foreign affairs and feels that nation-building should begin at home. 2012-10-23 13:30:00 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C507E6BCF1AB25/ The recent collapse in the value of Iran’s currency symbolises Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency: one of political and economic mismanagement. There is an economic imperative for the next president to end Iran’s international isolation or the Islamic Republic will face even greater economic pain. 2012-10-17 09:28:04 http://www.rusi.org/publications/defencesystems/ref:A5058ABFBF03D8/ Iran has a layered network of modern anti-ship missiles sourced from China, which has helped it to implement a plan for maximum sea control. Robert Hewson reports 2012-09-18 18:14:49 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A50460E6D5864F/ What are the implications for the West of Iran’s growing presence in the Asia-Pacific, and particularly its relationship with Malaysia? 2012-09-04 15:21:37 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C5044947B3D809/ The IAEA's latest report shows that Iran has greatly upgraded its uranium enrichment capacity. Some argue that Iran is poised to enter a "zone of immunity". But what does this mean, and is it a useful concept? 2012-09-03 12:32:31 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A50126C2B17361/ Can talks between the P5+1 and Iran succeed in addressing the mutual ‘trust gap’ that exists between the two sides? 2012-07-27 11:24:41 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4FB66783833D5/ Some kind of a union between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain was believed to herald the beginning of a wider Gulf Union plan. But this idea failed before it even began. While there is a united front against Iran, smaller Gulf states do not want to lose their sovereignty and identity to a dominant Saudi Arabia. 2012-05-18 16:17:34 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F7572130F2E4/ A ground invasion is impossible. But Israel lacks the long-range assets unilaterally to neutralise a dispersed Iranian nuclear capability, whereas a large US co-ordinated air campaign against Iranian nuclear weapon facilities is eminently feasible. Nevertheless the effectiveness and fallout from such a campaign remains in doubt. 2012-03-30 09:45:07 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F7582D15B4B3/ With prospects of igniting a regional war, some leading lights in the Israeli security establishment suggest a more careful approach. Yet, Israel perceives Iran as a rational actor that is likely to change its course only if faced by clear threat of use of force and effective international pressure. Recent US leaks about possible Israeli operational planning only heighten Israeli concerns. 2012-03-30 06:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F74A24A1E361/ In pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, Iran is acting rationally and in accordance with its past actions and strategic interests. Nevertheless, this does not mean at a nuclear-armed, or nuclear-capable Iran can be deterred or contained, at least not with traditional deterrence policies. A nuclear Iran means a multi-polar Middle East. And that, in turn, means a multi-polar, or multi-tiered deterrence strategy, of a kind which the world has never experienced before, and one which may well fail to contain the Iranian challenge. 2012-03-29 19:02:22 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F7499BFA4A41/ Obama's declaratory policy on Iran involves a fine balancing act that is designed for multiple audiences: a recalcitrant Iranian regime, a domestic population about to go to the polls, and a jittery Middle Eastern region led by Israel. Though this strategy has thus far been successful, it carries notable risks for the Administration in the midst of a continuing standoff with Iran. 2012-03-29 18:38:27 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F7492EC175FE/ Ever since its inception in 1979, the Iranian regime has deployed opaque yet highly charged rhetoric against enemies and to garner support at home and abroad. That policy is becoming unstuck in the case of the nuclear programme, where fewer people are convinced of the civilian nature of Iran's nuclear ambitions altogether. 2012-03-29 17:54:48 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F4BA65E76604/ Pessimists warn that a nuclear Iran cannot be safely contained. But these risks - irrational behaviour, nuclear safety, and further proliferation - need to be dispassionately assessed and put into context. 2012-02-27 16:06:33 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F4B78F5026A6/ RUSI's Malcolm Chalmers talks to The Economist newspaper on the risks involved in a pre-emptive strike against Iran's nuclear programme 2012-02-27 12:39:54 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F3A3B78218D2/ The attacks against Israel diplomatic targets in India and Georgia may well usher in a new chapter in the covert war between Iran and Israel. The Jewish state may feel emboldened to retaliate decisively on an Iran that is becoming increasingly isolated in the Arab world. 2012-02-14 10:48:50 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F328B3696A01/ Something needs to be done to stop the Syrian Army killing ever increasing number of its citizens. But Syria is far more complex than Libya and simply sending arms and further internationalising the Syrian Civil War will only exacerbate the war and elongate suffering. A more viable solution is for Arab states to use their muscle as energy suppliers to slow down the Assad regime. 2012-02-08 14:53:23 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4F0D7C4C3DB37/ The killing of a nuclear scientist in Tehran may well be the latest in a line of skirmishes between Iran and its American-led adversaries. Both sides are playing a zero-game, and neither coercive actions nor more negotiations are likely to bring a durable settlement. 2012-01-11 12:18:57 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4EEA41041E169/ If this year brought us an earthquake, then 2012 will be a year of aftershocks and transitions. Speculate as we might, we must still prepare for the predictable but watch for the surprises. 2011-12-15 18:56:54 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4ED8C83A526AC/ With the ransacking of the British embassy in Tehran, the West has further shrunk its repository of policy options, leaving sanctions as the policy tool of choice. However, while sanctions may slow Iran's forays into the nuclear field, they are unlikely to divert their course entirely. 2011-12-02 13:00:21 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A4ECCE29339F64/ Saudi Arabia's response to the Arab Spring has ranged from apparent inertia to the financing and leadership of counter-revolution, but at all times the stability of the kingdom has been its primary objective. 2011-11-23 12:11:07 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4EC268A09E267/ The International Atomic Energy Agency's latest report on Iran describes in unprecedented detail a country moving slowly towards a nuclear weapons option, rather than a bomb itself. This lack of a 'smoking gun' removes military response from the international community's toolbox of policy options. But this is no grounds for complacency. 2011-11-15 13:37:10 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4E9D50E58B5A6/ Iran is accused of attempting to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the United States on American soil. It is the stuff of spy thrillers. If proved true, then both Saudi Arabia and the United States are well within their rights to declare war on Iran. Why would Iran embark on such an irrational action at a time of great internal and external vulnerability? 2011-10-18 11:12:36 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4E9D4DD961F79/ There are many questions remaining in the accusations that Iran planned to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the United States. Yet the consequences are real: the failed plot, regardless of its actuality, heightens Iran’s conspiratorial view of the international community, while further closing hope for dialogue. 2011-10-18 11:05:46 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4E5F66F731EAB/ A new eavesdropping attack on Iranian GMail users suggests that the Islamic Republic is stepping up its digital offensive against dissidents. But Iran is not unique - it is just ahead of the curve. There is no simple response for Western governments. 2011-09-01 12:10:16 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A4DE516766B88A/ The departure of Al-Assad could lead the Syrian-Iranian alliance to stumble, but it will not destroy the relationship's foundations 2011-05-31 17:25:31 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A4DE513969D7DB/ Some might see Iran's engagement in the Middle East as the final ingredient to a Shia crescent, but Arab Shia could just find it meddlesome 2011-05-31 17:17:58 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4DA47282158B0/ The uprisings have affected the governments of some of the world's largest oil exporters. In the long-term, however, supply is unlikely to be affected. 2011-04-12 16:41:45 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4D9DD62361AF0/ Saudia Arabian foreign policy is determined - to a disproportionately large extent - by its fear of Iran, and its insistence that its neighbours fall in line could jeopardise the fragile alliances of the Gulf. 2011-04-07 16:29:57 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4D91E71FD3A73/ Western policymakers may weigh up a number of ways to help the rebels in Libya - what should not be in doubt, however, is their obligation to provide some much-needed assistance. 2011-03-29 15:11:57 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A4CED5C261C56E/ The Gulf States are arming, but they will still rely on others for security 2010-11-24 18:40:40 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4CE3E15FF40BD/ Advocates of pre-emptive attacks on Iranian nuclear related facilities and/or regime change should recognise that the risks and costs of such an attack remain prohibitive. 2010-11-17 14:10:57 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4C4EA914DD54F/ The leaking of 90,000 combat reports from Afghanistan reveals a familiar but depressing picture of operations in Afghanistan. Yet their revelation comes at a critical juncture for policymakers. 2010-07-27 10:38:53 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4C4DE4346B2D8/ How significant is the release of the Afghan war documents on WikiLeaks? RUSI Director Michael Clarke gives his assessment 2010-07-26 20:40:54 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4B2BAFC78828A/ Powerful structural forces inside Iran, not individual personalities, have brought Tehran to the brink of confrontation with the international community over its nuclear programme. Hope lies with closer US-Iran contacts - but this will come at the expense of even greater tensions with Britain and Israel. 2009-12-18 16:40:43 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4A9E4172ED746/ Internal upheaval has delayed Iran’s response, due this month (September), to the US offer of nuclear talks. The response of the international community to Iran's ongoing nuclear programme will be observed with keen interest by Gulf Arab neighbours whose attitude is governed by the overriding desire to constrain Iran’s regional role. This raises questions as to what options are open to them, including what part they would play in increased US economic or military pressure on Iran. 2009-09-02 11:14:59 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4A57630A8C4EC/ With the dispute of Iran’s election and new allegations of a plan by military officers in Turkey to discredit its own Islamic-rooted leadership, these seemingly-opposite governments both demonstrate a trend of uneasy relationships with their more progressive populations. 2009-07-10 16:54:08 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N4A26AB1E9B754/ His Excellency Minister Taieb Fassi Fihri gives an overview of Morocco’s position in international security 2009-06-03 17:58:09 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4A0A8EF2C9DBF/ The Obama Administration’s call for a fresh start with Iran have so far been met with hostility, a result of political battles within Iran’s governing faction. Yet the political squabbling masks a tentative movement in Iran away from hostility and towards engagement. 2009-05-13 10:32:10 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C479637092C586/ The British left must face-up to the truth: Iran could still develop a nuclear bomb in the next few years. This can only be avoided, says Malcolm Chalmers, by engagement and diplomacy. 2008-01-22 18:40:00 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4784DF6A9E6B2/ The US President visits the Gulf amidst heightened tension between the United States and Iran. But the latest episode in the Straits of Hormuz only underlines the wariness towards both countries by Gulf Arab States. 2008-01-09 14:52:23 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C47289E3D4C118/ An analysis of the means the US should employ in its policy towards Iran's nuclear ambitions. A combination of sticks, carrots and diplomacy might serve Washington's aims better than sanctions and rhetorical brinksmanship. 2007-11-01 00:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C46EE8C1BA48B6/ For British leaders Iran may seem like a basket case at present, but it has to be handled politically not militarily. 2007-09-17 15:16:47 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C46080D68E3CB6/ In light of the established evidence, the Iranian seizure of Royal Navy personnel seems bizarre 2007-03-26 19:14:26 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A45D996252CA69/ The heat may be rising on Ahmadinejad, but Tehran’s fundamental strategic position has not altered. 2007-02-19 12:21:00 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4534C62EF11B3/ The end of ambiguity about Pyongyang's nuclear capacity raises fundamental questions affecting China, the United States, and the future of international non-proliferation strategy. Indirectly, these consequences could actually work to the advantage of the West in its attempts to prevent Iran 'going nuclear'. 2006-10-17 13:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:P4173B26FAACDA/ Is the threat of UN-imposed economic sanctions on an oil-dependent country, widely regarded as the most effective way of bringing the nuclear programme to heel, really the only way of meeting the Iranian challenge? 2004-10-18 13:09:19 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f77d04cab/ Short of a truly radical upheaval in global energy markets, the world is likely to rely increasingly on Middle East oil for the next twenty years or so. 2004-06-18 12:23:42 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:J40d32ea719263/ The recent elimination of long-standing disputes and other diplomatic hurdles in relations with Iran and Libya has enabled London some room for manoeuvre in the Middle East, but without causing serious difficulties in Britain’s relations with Washington. 2000-02-21 09:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:A4CEBBBD10F73C/ 1857-05-01 13:00:00