http://www.rusi.org/ web@rusi.org en-us Copyright 2010 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A4BA0C7F57EE32/ The political landscape in Egypt is shifting. However, democratic reforms are required if its coming election is to match expectations at home and abroad 2010-03-17 12:15:51 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C4BA0A45EDC053/ The importance of Iraq's national elections on 7 March cannot be over-estimated. While the ballots continue to be counted and discussions of possible alliances to form Iraq's next government ensue, it is pertinent to assess the electoral process itself and the next political stage of Iraq's infant democracy. 2010-03-17 09:47:38 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C4B62D375B0ED6/ Tony Blair's evidence to the Iraq inquiry may focus on the legality of the war. But he is guilty of confused optimism rather than an urge to behave illegally. 2010-01-29 12:24:53 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A4B5ECBACB14AB/ India’s traditional emphasis on foreign policy autonomy means that its deepening military and security ties with Iran should not be viewed as a surprise 2010-01-26 11:02:24 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A4B5ECB98E0F68/ A knee-jerk, militarised response is not the answer. Sophisticated understanding of insecurity within a wider regional framework is required. 2010-01-26 11:01:51 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A4B5ECB646C986/ Divisions between ‘Old’ and ‘New’ Europe about Israel are undermining the EU’s potential as an effective regional mediator in the peace process 2010-01-26 11:01:23 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C4B475DF54843E/ It has now become apparent that the airline bomb suspect Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab was trained in Yemen by Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula. Neither the threat of this attack nor the danger posed by the group to Western interests should be exaggerated. 2010-01-08 16:50:24 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C4B475B34EBDA8/ The failure of terror suspect Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab to blow up an airliner over the US has also highlighted failures in our counter-terrorism strategies and analysis, which must now be addressed. 2010-01-08 16:21:38 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C4B2BAFC78828A/ Powerful structural forces inside Iran, not individual personalities, have brought Tehran to the brink of confrontation with the international community over its nuclear programme. Hope lies with closer US-Iran contacts - but this will come at the expense of even greater tensions with Britain and Israel. 2009-12-18 16:40:43 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:A4B28F530853A8/ Saudi Arabia pursues a dual strategy in the fight against terrorism. The West could learn from the security and rehabilitation programmes of the Kingdom 2009-12-16 14:58:39 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A4B0BC86AF0F97/ Yemen is a battleground for Saudi Arabian and Iranian proxies in the struggle for regional dominance 2009-11-24 11:50:05 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C4AF2CAD7E7536/ Reports of the United Arab Emirates entering into the advanced stages of negotiating a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with NATO comes at a time when the region continues to face threats of varying degrees, and the Atlantic alliance looks for a renewed role after celebrating its sixtieth anniversary. 2009-11-05 12:59:16 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N4AE828C2B53FE/ Turkey's fight against terrorism deserves more encouragement and support from its European partners, according to a new RUSI Occasional paper. 2009-10-28 11:26:31 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4AD6FC9F41077/ Speaking at RUSI's Qatar office on 12 October 2009, RUSI Council member and Shadow Security Minister Baroness Pauline Neville-Jones discussed the role the Middle East and the Gulf region could play in Britain's fight against terrorism over the next few years. 2009-10-15 11:52:26 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4AC61746EA3A7/ Barack Obama must dial up the diplomacy and provide more policy detail if he is to make progress on peace in the Middle East 2009-10-02 16:14:33 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4ABB85CAB4F4A/ Effectively starting from scratch with a force of varied backgrounds and global outlooks, the IDF underwent an unusual learning curve in its early stages, where previous experience and lessons of success were absent from the process until built up in years to come. 2009-09-24 15:48:29 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4AB7E3B86C0B8/ The recent emphasis on explaining to the wider public the aims and objectives of the campaign in Afghanistan is not a new phenomenon. The 'information campaign' has always been an essential pillar to the wider political and military strategy. However, the historic difficulties of forging a credible and successful 'story' in support of counter-insurgency operations are forcibly demonstrated by the British experience in Palestine in the aftermath of the Second World War. 2009-09-21 21:41:37 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4A9E4172ED746/ Internal upheaval has delayed Iran’s response, due this month (September), to the US offer of nuclear talks. The response of the international community to Iran's ongoing nuclear programme will be observed with keen interest by Gulf Arab neighbours whose attitude is governed by the overriding desire to constrain Iran’s regional role. This raises questions as to what options are open to them, including what part they would play in increased US economic or military pressure on Iran. 2009-09-02 11:14:59 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4A57630A8C4EC/ With the dispute of Iran’s election and new allegations of a plan by military officers in Turkey to discredit its own Islamic-rooted leadership, these seemingly-opposite governments both demonstrate a trend of uneasy relationships with their more progressive populations. 2009-07-10 16:54:08 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4A4B2620A2286/ The date for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq has been dubbed the ‘National Day of Sovereignty’, but the quest for Iraqi stability is not over yet. Iraqi politicians and US officials alike must now commit to encouraging the war-torn country to stand on its own feet. 2009-07-01 10:04:01 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4A30FCD938D08/ The Lebanese elections were carried out peacefully, demonstrating progress in the democratic process, but a successful day of polling cannot completely cover remaining tensions between 'March 14' and 'March 8'. 2009-06-11 13:50:12 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4A27FE9CA400C/ Obama’s Cairo speech has fulfilled the Obama administration’s determination to change in tone and substance the US dialogue with the Muslim world. It revealed an understanding of current political realities and the core beliefs of all parties. Through personal engagement he emphasised that violence should be rejected as a political tool. While Obama will have won credit to manage the challenges ahead, he must still show the moral authority to act in the face of criticism. 2009-06-04 18:06:44 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4A0A8EF2C9DBF/ The Obama Administration’s call for a fresh start with Iran have so far been met with hostility, a result of political battles within Iran’s governing faction. Yet the political squabbling masks a tentative movement in Iran away from hostility and towards engagement. 2009-05-13 10:32:10 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C49FCE0A01E12E/ Troops need to believe that they risk their lives for things that are genuinely important. 2009-05-03 01:12:17 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C49F9BEE224FA0/ The undoubted bravery and professionalism of British troops in Iraq disguised the deeper strategic failings of their mission. Leaders need to learn from the mistakes in Basra as we now concentrate in Afghanistan. 2009-04-30 16:10:11 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C49F6D4479F1E8/ Obama's presidency has been greeted with abundant goodwill in the Middle East and his rhetoric thus far has only bettered relations. Much depends on the concrete steps that will follow his fine words. 2009-04-28 11:08:43 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C49CFF9763279C/ Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has launched two initiatives that would improve its relationship with countries in the Middle East. Whilst there are undoubtedly common interests on which to build, the public perception of NATO in the region leaves much to be desired. The Alliance must tread carefully if it wishes to build lasting relationships in the region. 2009-03-29 23:44:16 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C49C12155A9421/ Following the Gaza crisis, pledges of aid for reconstruction are helping to strengthen the political will to create an effective Palestinian Unity Government. Although many challenges remain unresolved, some encouraging signs have emerged from the early stages of reconciliation talks. 2009-03-18 16:30:17 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N49A6DBCF2F267/ Key areas of co-operation identified for international, regional and national practitioners and policymakers. 2009-02-26 18:17:11 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C498C298546144/ The regional elections in Iraq took place in January in a much hoped for atmosphere of peace and security. The results will begin to show whether Iraq remains a patchwork of conflicting groups, or whether progress is being made to draw the country together and develop a sense of national unity. 2009-02-06 12:19:22 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A49804CF0236EB/ President Obama’s campaign trail effectively changed America’s policies on Iran through its declarations of direct engagement with Tehran and, most controversially, discourse with Iranian leaders ‘without pre-conditions’. With the current stand-off between the US and Iran entering its fourth decade, and the task facing the US to produce a diplomatic breakthrough seemingly ever-more arduous, now could be the time for genuine diplomacy and negotiations between the two. 2009-01-28 12:19:13 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C497D9F21ECFCD/ However disheartening the current war in Gaza has been, it can become the catalyst for such productive peace negotiations that will lead to the two-state solution. The latest conflict in Gaza has demonstrated to both sides that war can no longer improve their position over each other substantially enough to justify the cost involved. 2009-01-26 11:34:51 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C496F1DC545E4B/ Hamas has repeatedly stated that it has an army of 20,000 men that are willing to defeat their ‘Zionist enemy’ regardless of the cost, echoing the rhetoric of the second intifada (2000-2005). However, there is a crucial difference between the Hamas of the second intifada and the Hamas we see in Gaza today. 2009-01-15 11:35:54 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C496C7AEB68B4A/ Israel’s actions in Gaza are designed to deal with more than the present challenge presented by Hamas – there are long term existential issues at stake. If Israel is to deter its neighbours from becoming involved in wars in the future, it must set back the strategic penetration of Iran and its radical axis. 2009-01-13 11:32:37 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C496B4E1762972/ The culture of resistance in the Arab world has become more uncompromising and more anti-European as a result of the attacks on Gaza and the round of international diplomacy that has followed it. Israel and its supporters have already suffered a major strategic defeat. 2009-01-12 14:06:01 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C4961F98592F4B/ At last the prospects for stability in Iraq seem good. With many changes expected in 2009 there is a real opportunity for the Iraqis themselves to seize the initiative and claim back their sense of sovereignty. Of course there are hurdles to clear such as provincial elections, defining the status of Kirkuk and managing sectarianism without the impartial US forces, but the current momentum should carry the Iraqis through. 2009-01-05 12:16:25 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C495E44985A8AB/ The underlying logic to the current Israeli military response in Gaza is that Hamas can somehow be destroyed. Instead, the strategy will fuel support for Hamas and will feed the single narrative of suffering that sustains Al-Qa’ida and its global ideological affiliates. 2009-01-02 16:48:16 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C494B9295ACCE1/ As the UK announces its withdrawal from Iraq, an overall judgement of its deployment should be a favourable one. Although it has become clear that the softer British approach is no longer appropriate, the UK contingent has made significant progress in preparing the Iraqis to cope with their own security. 2008-12-19 12:27:19 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A48DCF033DD420/ The ruling AKP’s foreign policy of ‘strategic depth’ invites the possibility of restructuring relations between the East and the West on a footing that reconciles its traditional roles with both. 2008-09-26 15:23:03 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A488755A15CC45/ This article explains the reasons for the differing treatment the Iranian and North Korean nuclear threats have recieved from the West, highlighting that the threat from Iran is greater than that of North Korea. 2008-07-23 17:02:02 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C482C37D86C34E/ The latest stand-off between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government underlines the primacy of the Shia movement. They have now fundamentally challenged the terms of the grand bargain between Lebanon’s many different sects and confessions. 2008-05-15 14:18:40 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N48171734EF2E6/ To mark the fifth anniversary of the Iraq War, the Royal United Services Institute has published a major retrospective on the conflict. 2008-04-09 13:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A47E10435F2532/ The publication of the US National Intelligence Estimate has caught the Gulf States off balance. 2008-03-19 12:18:43 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C479637092C586/ The British left must face-up to the truth: Iran could still develop a nuclear bomb in the next few years. This can only be avoided, says Malcolm Chalmers, by engagement and diplomacy. 2008-01-22 18:40:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A478CC1B17B4FF/ Looking into the structures which define Europe’s relations with its southern neighbouring region, this article calls for further developments in EU-NATO co-operation within the security arena. 2008-01-15 14:23:04 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C4784DF6A9E6B2/ The US President visits the Gulf amidst heightened tension between the United States and Iran. But the latest episode in the Straits of Hormuz only underlines the wariness towards both countries by Gulf Arab States. 2008-01-09 14:52:23 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C47289E3D4C118/ An analysis of the means the US should employ in its policy towards Iran's nuclear ambitions. A combination of sticks, carrots and diplomacy might serve Washington's aims better than sanctions and rhetorical brinksmanship. 2007-11-01 00:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A471C785BBB5A6/ On 29 July 2007, the Bush Administration announced plans to provide an estimated $63 billion worth of advanced weaponry to several of its key allies in the Middle East. 2007-10-22 11:23:07 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C46F90F06A59F5/ Violent interventions in the sovereign space of other states are rapidly becoming a familiar feature of contemporary global politics. 2007-09-25 14:39:32 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N46F0DDB73C0ED/ General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker comes to RUSI to share their assessments on Iraq. General Petraeus warned of the devastating consequences from premature drawdown of forces. 2007-09-19 09:30:06 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C46EE8C1BA48B6/ For British leaders Iran may seem like a basket case at present, but it has to be handled politically not militarily. 2007-09-17 15:16:47 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:A467280213B3A3/ The international community should devote more attention to universal nuclear disarmament and no-first use guarantees, especially against non-nuclear states. 2007-06-15 13:03:47 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:C46080D68E3CB6/ In light of the established evidence, the Iranian seizure of Royal Navy personnel seems bizarre 2007-03-26 19:14:26 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A45F5874C6B31A/ A leaked EU report recognises that diplomatic efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons programme have failed. Member states must decide whether they can accept a nuclear Iran, and what can be done to stop its programme. 2007-03-12 17:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:A45E40F7332439/ While the Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons would, of course, have enormous strategic ramifications throughout the region and beyond, it is far from certain that it would provoke a nuclear arms race with any country. Much more likely, instead, is an arms race to acquire a clear edge in the means to wage conventional war. 2007-02-27 11:01:38 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N45E2AD89A250E/ Redeploying troops from Iraq to Afghanistan makes perfect military and political sense 2007-02-26 09:54:59 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N45488CCF9CAC6/ According to a new paper produced by Jeff Michaels, associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), an influential Whitehall think-tank, the fledgling all-volunteer Iraqi armed forces are “not fit for purpose” and will need massive military support from the West for some time to come. Michaels bases his argument on the fact that the new Iraqi forces are essentially a “light infantry army” which lacks any heavy armour and support units. Without conscription, he claims, “many of the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who should be employed in military service are currently unemployed, and provide a steady source of recruits for the insurgency”. 2006-10-22 12:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N45488CCF9CAC6/ According to a new paper produced by Jeff Michaels, associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), an influential Whitehall think-tank, the fledgling all-volunteer Iraqi armed forces are “not fit for purpose” and will need massive military support from the West for some time to come. Michaels bases his argument on the fact that the new Iraqi forces are essentially a “light infantry army” which lacks any heavy armour and support units. Without conscription, he claims, “many of the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who should be employed in military service are currently unemployed, and provide a steady source of recruits for the insurgency”. 2006-10-22 12:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:C4534C62EF11B3/ The end of ambiguity about Pyongyang's nuclear capacity raises fundamental questions affecting China, the United States, and the future of international non-proliferation strategy. Indirectly, these consequences could actually work to the advantage of the West in its attempts to prevent Iran 'going nuclear'. 2006-10-17 13:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/news/ref:N45488E0CD5065/ Amyas Godfrey, a former British army officer at the Royal United Services Institute, said officials have responded to public pressure to set a timetable for a withdrawal from Iraq by saying that it will come "when the job is done." So it is significant, he said, that the army chief has said: "We should be leaving." 2006-10-14 12:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A452E16D356565/ For a US president facing mid-term elections from a position of weakness, this is hardly the best moment to make momentous decisions on North Korea and Iran 2006-10-12 11:20:05 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C44E5877FD7759/ After a month long war, perhaps the most significant in the Middle East in its recent history, are we now witnessing a new regional order? 2006-08-18 10:38:44 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:A44C9DBB59CDF4/ This article examines how an air campaign against Iranian nuclear sites would fare in the event that international diplomatic efforts fail to deter Tehran from mastering nuclear weapon technologies. 2006-06-28 10:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A44315AA4A9295/ Over energy security, the United States and China are starting to find themselves bound into a cycle of mutual distrust. 2006-04-03 18:26:56 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A43DDF188D6082/ Iran's competing power groups can offer restraint and caution that is not present in areas of President Ahmadinejad’s direct control 2006-01-30 11:00:02 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:P4215D3F0EA47A/ Stopping Iran from achieving nuclear capability is a good thing – not least because failure to do so will spawn a nuclear race throughout the region. 2005-02-18 11:39:28 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:P4214BC35CCFB9/ Aside from the threat of being attacked, this suggests that there are other reasons why Israel appears so concerned about the possible development of an Iranian nuclear warhead. 2005-02-17 15:45:57 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:P4214B51ECA8AA/ As with the reports which provided the impetus for US and UK intelligence service reforms, their styles are very different. 2005-02-17 15:15:42 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:P41BD74CDB2209/ Despite initial euphoria at the agreement between the EU3 and Iran, the reaction to the deal quickly exposed some of the political tensions that may eventually prove to be its undoing. 2004-12-13 10:54:05 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:C41B5DFC5E0839/ Arafat is dead. Across the Arab world, the news was greeted with an outpouring of shock and mourning that dwarfed anything we have seen in the West since the generation of WWII leaders died. 2004-12-07 00:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:P4173B26FAACDA/ Is the threat of UN-imposed economic sanctions on an oil-dependent country, widely regarded as the most effective way of bringing the nuclear programme to heel, really the only way of meeting the Iranian challenge? 2004-10-18 13:09:19 http://www.rusi.org/publications/monitor/ref:A473DB915C105A/ This article proposes a unique solution to the security problems plaguing Iraq's oil infrastructure. 2004-09-01 15:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:P41459D0509C3A/ Despite the multiple and manifold divisions in transatlantic relations of late, policy-makers in Washington and the European capitals seem to be edging towards accord on at least one issue: our present policies on Iran are not working. 2004-09-01 09:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:P4129D0A009ADC/ Our intelligence community costs upwards of £1.5 billion annually, and prides itself on the top level assessments of its much admired Joint Intelligence Committee (the JIC), yet something went wrong. 2004-08-23 12:10:23 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f7be5f1fb/ Regardless of the negative image the United States and Saudi Arabia may have in each other’s media, 2004-06-18 12:23:45 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f7b9de13c/ Iranian academic Jalil Roshandel examines why Iran may be seeking Weapons of Mass Destruction 2004-06-18 12:23:44 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f7b57036b/ 2004-06-18 12:23:44 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f7b69264b/ Michael Codner provides a compelling round-up of UK military options and the implications of war in Iraq 2004-06-18 12:23:44 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f7b51370b/ 2004-06-18 12:23:44 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f7b7b492b/ The foreign policy of Saudi Arabia over the past half century has been based upon a careful balancin 2004-06-18 12:23:44 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f789ca8bc/ 2004-06-18 12:23:42 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f77e83beb/ 2004-06-18 12:23:42 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f7693f62b/ 2004-06-18 12:23:41 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f766359eb/ 2004-06-18 12:23:41 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f74d1ac3f/ 2004-06-18 12:23:40 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:P40C892701370C/ Iraq serves as a potent illustration of how deeply embedded today’s private sector is in the business of security and war, and why questions over legislation require urgent attention. 2004-06-10 17:55:12 http://www.rusi.org/publications/monitor/ref:A473DAABF144F9/ This article explores the nature of the violent insurgency in Iraq and the debate over foreign fighters in the conflict. 2004-05-01 14:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:P40756407805AD/ This article provides a macro perspective of Saudi Arabia's place in the global 'war on terror'. 2004-04-08 15:39:03 http://www.rusi.org/publications/monitor/ref:A473D7E2BB5348/ This article analyses Hizbullah’s continued activities iN Africa within the context of the war on terrorism. 2004-03-01 11:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/journal/ref:J40c1f7fc073bb/ This article assesses the politicization of intelligence and the factors that led to the UK government's insistence that Iraq posed a sufficient threat to British interests to justify war. 2004-02-18 12:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/monitor/ref:A473D7C0EE0C41/ The turmoil in Algeria means that greater international >scrutiny is being devoted to the effectiveness of the regime's counter-terrorism strategy. 2003-12-01 11:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A47596C7CC224B/ Despite the prevailing pessimism, the chances of negotiations being restarted between Israel and the Palestinian authorities are in reality much improved. 2002-04-01 15:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:J40d32ea7c73b3/ United States, World Trade Centre, terrorism, Middle East, intelligence 2001-10-01 09:00:00 http://www.rusi.org/publications/monitor/ref:A473DBED9CE68A/ This article assesses the increasing violence in post-Saddam Iraq and its potential outcomes. 0000-00-00 00:00:00