On 7 February 2008, RUSI hosted a conference on Zimbabwe. This conference, which attracted a full house, discussed the current crisis with a particular focus on the March 2008 elections and the prospects for reconstruction and improved security in their aftermath. International and regional experts from academe, NGOs, the media, political and security fields were joined by a number of speakers and participants from Zimbabwe, representing both opposition parties and the government.

A full conference report is available by clicking here.

Summary

Presentations and discussion spanned security, politics and economics. After the keynote speakers, the second session covered the Zimbabwean security sector.

• Police and military in Zimbabwe are politicised and are sources of insecurity
• The police are a tool of autocracy politically dominated by the ruling party
• The military are part of the governing fabric of the state
• Both are critical to understanding the Zimbabwean political landscape, particularly when considering post-crisis reconstruction

The session on the post-2000 crisis and future scenarios involved heated discussion and a wide variety of views on the panel and in the discussion.

• Politics has been characterised by intolerance and disunity.
• Foreign media coverage obscures the real MDC/ZANU-PF divisions by framing the issue in terms of white farmers and land reform
• MDC representatives compared the coming election to the 1980 election; then, the incumbent regime controlled the media and security forces, but still lost
• The opposition has an ‘extraordinary penchant for scoring own goals’
• Ethnic or sectarian conflict is unlikely but voters are increasingly disillusioned with the ruling and opposition parties

There has been little comprehensive work concerning ‘post-Mugabe Zimbabwe’, and the next session elaborated on the economics of reconstruction and the media.

• Reconstruction needs bilateral donors alongside multilateral mechanisms.
• The international consensus on economic renewal and development is congruent with the aims of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
• Agriculture should form the initial dynamo of Zimbabwe’s economic recovery
• China’s influence in Africa will alter the character of Western assistance
• The diaspora will play a key economic role, whether they return or not
• The Media has polarised Zimbabwean society, and the roots of the problems may be in the foundations of the state itself

Rising to the next level of analysis, the final session discussed the global and regional context of the crisis and reconstruction, including the role of the diaspora.

• Despite political mistrust, regional integration spurred by non-state actors is now a reality
• In the SADC, Zimbabwe finds few friends at the policy level, even if there is no public censure
• The diaspora has emerged from the economic and political excesses of the regime, and exile has been involuntary and voluntary
• Critical perspectives on the country’s economic collapse exist: the country only became a ‘failed state’ after land reform was highlighted in the foreign media
• The role of the diaspora is not straightforward, but ultimately return will only happen if there is an inclusive democratic system; capacity remains a challenge

Knox Chitiyo and Adrian Johnson
RUSI

The views expressed above are the authors' own, and do not necessarily reflect those of RUSI.

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