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: Index 2007

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Monthly briefings on current issues in international defence and security and the military sciences.

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Index

North Korea: After the Bomb With the United States confirming that Pyongyang had indeed, as it claimed, conducted an underground nuclear test on 9 October, this article analyzes the effects of the bomb on the country, region and international community.
Aidan Foster-Carter

Motives and Implications Behind China's ASAT Test China’s ASAT test, coupled with the revelation last year that a US satellite was ‘painted’ by a Chinese ground-based laser presents unsettling questions about China’s commitment to arms control, the ramifications of its rise as a major power, its military posture and foreign policy toward the United States and civil-military relations in China.
Kevin Pollpeter

The New Iraqi Army: Not Fit For Purpose Iraq’s armed forces will be incapable of deterring a potential adversary without a permanent commitment of Coalition forces.
Jeff Michaels

Shrapnel Country: An Alternative View of the 2007 Somali Intervention The multinational (that is, Ethiopian and US) intervention in Somalia has attracted a great deal of comment and criticism. However, despite its flaws, this intervention may yet have a positive impact. The current Somali experiment in power-sharing might just work.
Tapera Knox Chitiyo

The Unfulfilled Potential of the Military Police: Greater Proactive Exploitation of Police Skills on Operations Engagement in humanitarian interventions, with the ensuing struggle to establish law and order, has given forces that combine police with military skills a renewed relevance. However, their latent ability to contribute to the tackling of the far deeper causes of a conflict requires a more profound analysis.
Toby Steward

Hu Jintao: The Quiet Reformer or Party Puritan? As Hu Jintao launches his own brand of CCP party doctrine, we are not observing a reformer in the Western democratic sense, but a determined party man, resolute in his role of guiding the CCP through irreversible economic reforms.
Alex Neill

South Africa's President Motlanthe: All Change, or Business as Usual Few mourn the passing of Thabo Mbeki from the South African presidency. The manner and timing of his dismissal, however, have raised questions about what will happen under the new president.
Knox Chitiyo

Russia’s Presidential Election: A Smooth Transfer of Power, or the Calm before the Storm? Although Dimitry Medvedev's victory was assured, it is as yet unclear how power will be managed between him and Vladimir Putin.
Carolina Vendil Pallin

A New League of Democracies? Republican nominee Senator John McCain has proposed the creation of a new 'League of Democracies', though how 'new' is the idea and how committed to it will he be once the election is over?
Laura Bridge

A New Era of Stability The recent Turkish elections delivered a landslide victory for the AKP. What was crucial about these elections?
Gulnur Aybet

The Fall of the Shevardnadze Government in Georgia: Revolution or Regime Change? The ousting from power of President Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia on 23 November could prove to be a key moment in the political and economic development of the troubled Caucasian republic.
Stephen Blackwell

USAID in Afghanistan This article examines the role and success of USAID projects in Afghanistan. The international community must recognize that without a unified approach, progress will be marginalized.
Kate Clouston

The Phoenix and the Double-Headed Eagle Tango Again This article assesses the current activities and the future prospects of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization.
Alexander Neill

The Obama Revolution Barack Obama’s campaign shook up American politics; this article questions whether his presidency will have a similar effect on international affairs. It lays out the likely immediate changes which will be seen in US foreign policy and outlines the possible stance his administration will take on other pressing concerns.
Lisa Aronsson

Dialogue, Partnership and an Eventual Union? Making Sense of our Security Relations in the Mediterranean Looking into the structures which define Europe’s relations with its southern neighbouring region, this article calls for further developments in EU-NATO co-operation within the security arena.
Alastair Cameron

A Return to Geopolitics? NATO in Asia If NATO relations are pursued sloppily, what may result is not a better network for the Alliance to draw upon for risk-management operations, but a new superpower conflict between ideologically dissimilar factions.
Michael Williams

Changing Faces, Changing Places: Realignment and Reassessment in the European Defence Market The latest round of defence industry realignment probably holds more pluses than minuses for Britain, but BAE Systems will probably find re-entry to the European market a more difficult process than its steady departure has proven to be.
Tim Williams

NATO's Quiet Deployment NATO’s response to Hurricane Katrina may signal a fruitful new approach to operational decision-making within the Alliance.
Mark Joyce

Treading Water? Bosnia, the Western Balkans and the EU Progress in Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to be stymied by deeply factional politics. Yet, this article argues that things may not be as bad as they seem, and that strengthened and renewed EU engagement is necessary to move the country towards the goal of a functioning non-ethnic democracy.
Adrian Johnson

Security in Afghanistan: More Than a Job for NATO While the reconstruction of Afghanistan remains achievable, NATO and the international community must better coordinate their efforts, or risk strategic failure.
Michael Williams

The US, the UK and Sub-Saharan Africa: Evaluating Past and Re-thinking Future Policies Following the defeat of Republicans in the US Congress, US foreign policy on Africa will remain relatively static until after 2008.
Knox Chitiyo

From London to Lusaka: Lessons for the War on Terror The relative marginalization of Africa has rendered the continent a breeding ground for greater international security threats.
Kurt Shillinger

Iranian Influence in Iraq: How Serious a Threat? In the wake of the US invasion of Iraq, Iran has moved into the power vacuum left by the removal of Saddam. In a game of brinkmanship, Iran has demonstrated the strength of its position, whilst the US and Britain have been unable to prevent an increase of Iranian influence in Iraq
Mark Thomas

Washington and the Eurocrisis If Europe turning inward is dangerous for Washington, Europe’s leadership lashing outward to reassert damaged individual and collective influence also poses risks.
Phillip Cornell

Reform of the United Nations: Stalled Before it Even Began UN reform remains both inevitable and necessary, but if the current rows continue, it will be better to postpone the entire project.
Jonathan Eyal

Withdrawal Symptoms – The Next Phase in Iraq In military terms, knowing when to break off an engagement is as important a decision for the political leadership of a country as is the conduct of any part of the battle.
Amyas Godfrey

Transformation Under Fire When Donald Rumsfeld came to the Pentagon four years ago, he took on the challenge to implement an agenda near to his heart: military transformation.
Peter Spiegel

Killing Sheikh Yassin: The End of the Peace Process or the End of Arafat? Killing Sheikh Yassin: The End of the Peace Process or the End of Arafat? Hamas, Middle East Peace Process, Road Map.
Daniel Neep

Syria: Transit Route for WMD or Road to Middle East Peace? Assad, Saddam Hussein
Daniel Neep

Zimbabwe: A Gathering of Discontents More than a month after the ‘harmonised’ elections in Zimbabwe, the political process remains mired in controversy. International pressure to announce results of the presidential vote has been ignored in favour of a state managed ‘recount’.
Knox Chitiyo

The UK Terrorism Threat in Context While the current threat to the UK may have the appearance of being a new phenomenon, the effective ‘infrastructure’ has existed here for many years
Gary Himdle

Playing the Energy Game: Pipeline Politics in Russia's Backyard The Caspian region has become a battleground for foreign investors in an age where new sources of supply are short and energy consumption is on the rise.
Tammy Farrenkopf

Inaction Over Darfur The recent peace settlement, and any further peace agreement in Sudan’s Darfur region, will require a strong international commitment to be enforced.
Julien Artero

American Military Base Closures – Part II: Defense on the Defensive There is widespread scepticism on Capitol Hill that the Pentagon’s troop realignment plans will significantly improve the military’s ability to respond to global crises.
Mark Joyce

A Foreign Policy for President Yushchenko: Tough Constraints, Hard Choices Yushchenko’s greatest challenge is to hold power and not simply office.
James Sherr

The Iran–Al Qa’ida Link Despite the implausibility of the idea, there are a number of concrete sources and arguments that connect the regime with the terrorist organization
Jalil Roshandel and Sharon Chadha

Indonesia: A Peaceful Transition to What Indonesia. Asia, Megawati
Andrew Kennedy

Resignation, Reform and Rioting: Three steps to re-election in Yemen The announcement that the President Salih will stand down in 2006, if it is acted upon, is a decisive breakthrough for democratization in the region.
Jonathan Lindley

The EU takes on the Pirates of Puntland The EU is to launch a naval operation to counter piracy off the coast of Somalia. Challenges for Operation Atalanta abound, from the very basic – it is often difficult to distinguish pirates from fishermen, to the very complex – the EU is not a recognised entity under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and thus the operation will need to comply with the domestic anti-piracy laws of all participating states.
Bjoern Seibert

Zimbabwe: Waiting to Exhale? Does the eleventh-hour deal between ZANU-PF and the MDC herald a new era for Zimbabwe?
Knox Chitiyo

Xinjiang: A Two-Pronged Threat to China’s Internal Stability When discussing major non-traditional security threats to China’s stability, many analysts cite unrest in Tibet, Taiwan, or the potential collapse of North Korea as Beijing’s most pressing concerns.
Ryan Clarke

South Africa: Transit Point for International Jihadist? Over the past decade, South Africa has gained a steadily rising profile as a remote but consequential hub for transnational terror-related activity.
Kurt Shillinger

Frozen Conflicts: Putting Salt on the Ice Now that the era of grand hopes for the West's relationship with Russia is over, it is time to turn attention on Russia's role in Kosovo and frozen post-Soviet conflicts.
Andrew Gardner

The European Union's Imperial Overstretch The total sum of the EU’s regional interests and obligations are slowly but surely becoming larger than its ability to defend them all simultaneously.
Klaus Dalgaard

The International Criminal Court and Africa In July 2008, International Criminal Court (ICC) announced an ICC indictment against Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir.
Knox Chitiyo & Lawrence Devlin

South Korean Security Policy Under a New Banner Assessing the changes and developments in South Korean security policy, after the election of Lee Myungbak and the GNP
John Hemmings

Kenya: Africa's Nightmare Scenario? The political and humanitarian crisis which has engulfed Kenya following the disputed results of the 27 December 2007 Presidential election has been detrimental to its image and reputation.
Amy Harris

Guns, not Roses: A New Era for the African Union Forces? These are the best of times and the worst of times for the African Union and the African Union forces. This is a new era of opportunity and high expectation in the realms of development, governance and conflict resolution.
Tapera Knox Chitiyo

Homegrown Terrorism in Canada Has Canada’s multiculturalism encouraged divisions rather than integration?
Angela Gendron

The Future of Sinn Fein and the IRA: A Beneficial Relationship? The IRA’s sociopathic preoccupation with organized crime and its refusal to give up its weapons is dampening the ambitions of Sinn Fein.
Rebecca Cox

Unrest in Côte d’Ivoire Kurt Shillinger

Burma's Military Purge Reveals Increasing Divisions at the Top The recent coup in Burma spells the end of the line for Khin Nyunt, is bad news for the democracy roadmap, and leaves the country insecure and unstable.
Larry Jagan

Support for UK Veterans The recent ruling on Gurkha veterans brought the issue of support for UK veterans to the fore. This article highlights that veterans in Britain are not afforded the same support as those in the US and Australia. This article explores the reasons for this difference.
Richard Winstanley

Civil-Military Relations in Afghanistan: Time for Radical Reform This article argues that substantial reform by NATO allies is needed now if the Alliance is ever going to be ready to hand over control of the currently unsecured provinces to Afghan national forces.
Kate Clouston

Putin's New Set-up: Consolidating Power in Russia Recent personnel changes made in Russia suggest how President Putin is planning to handle the 2008 transition, when his term in office expires.
Irina Isakova

New Wine in Old Bottles: HMS Liverpool's Role as The Royal Navy's Atlantic Patrol Task (North) Unit Following the long traditions of the Royal Navy throughout the Caribbean and strongly supporting the Defence Vision, Liverpool has conducted outreach programmes to demonstrate the RN’s role as a force for good in the theatre.
Bruce Finch

The House of Lords and its Role in Defence Issues This article discusses the role of the House of Lords in the new security environment.
Lord Truscott

Building a Constitution: Fracture Lines in the New Iraq Drafting a constitution that meets the demands of all of Iraq’s diverse communities is overly optimistic.
Meredith Carroll

Rebuilding the Silk Road: Developments and Prospects for Security in the South Caucasus James Bosbotinis and Irina Ghaplanyan

Beijing Worries About Energy: China Moves to Secure Supplies China’s remarkable economic growth during the past quarter-century has surpassed its ability to fuel its economy and has been forced for the past decade to import a steadily increasing percentage of its energy.
Bernard D. Cole

At Last … Endgame in Sight in Iraq? In June 2004, in the run-up to the hand-over of power from the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG), for the first time there were audible military mutterings of the term ‘strategic failure’ to describe the apparent collapse of the original objectives of the US-led mission in Iraq.
Greg Mills

Prospects for the Iraqi Economy The Iraqi government faces major constraints on its economic policy and fiscal revenue options, and the country remains heavily reliant on foreign aid.
Neil Patrick

Gaza Withdrawal and the Security Quagmire The announcement of the Israeli plan for a Gaza withdrawal – whether tied to the Roadmap or not – couldn’t come at a worst time for those charged with maintaining security in the Gaza Strip.
Beverley Milton-Edwards

NATO, Iraq and The Afghan Analogy When NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer faces the media in Istanbul at the end of June, he will be braced for a barrage of questions on Iraq. His answers are likely to be brief and guarded.
Mark Joyce