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Ceasefire in Nepal: Threat or Opportunity?

By Justin Hempson-Jones
30 Jan 2006

The insurgency afflicting Nepal has been raging for almost ten years. More than ten thousand people have lost their lives and the countryside is for the most part under Maoist rebel control. Both the Maoists and government security forces have been accused of carrying out summary executions and torture, and since 2003, democratic governance has been suspended indefinitely by the king. But the situation recently took another strange twist when the rebels called a unilateral ceasefire. A subsequent meeting between them and Nepal’s largest political parties saw all agree that the ‘autocratic’ monarchy had to go and that an assembly should be formed to draft a new constitution.

This has placed the king in a difficult position, one that has left him politically isolated not only domestically but internationally too. Because he cannot trust the rebels, King Gyanendra has little choice but to continue resorting to military force in the short term, whilst engaging politically with the Maoists and the other political parties over the medium term. Any other path will spell an even bleaker future for the Nepalese monarchy and for longer-term peace prospects in this poor Himalayan kingdom.

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