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: Index 2007

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RUSI Newsbrief

Monthly briefings on current issues in international defence and security and the military sciences.

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Index

North Korea: After the Bomb With the United States confirming that Pyongyang had indeed, as it claimed, conducted an underground nuclear test on 9 October, this article analyzes the effects of the bomb on the country, region and international community.
Aidan Foster-Carter

Back to Basics at NATO: Burden-Sharing and Alliance Raison d’être Whilst there is widespread agreement that the Alliance’s mission in Afghanistan must succeed or NATO’s future will be dealt a fatal blow, beyond this, the same old problems continue to haunt the Alliance. If allowed to fester, they may ultimately jeopardize the ISAF operation.
Tim Williams

Canada Rethinks Afghanistan Canadian domestic political support for the NATO operation in Afghanistan is beginning to waver. Why and how will this re-shape policy in Ottawa?
Kristian Kennedy

Growing Instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan's Role Criticism is mounting over Pakistan's role in the conflict in Afghanistan, and there is growing unease in the West over its role in the 'War on Terror'. With upcoming country elections, Musharraf has to make compromises to stay in power.
Harsh V Pant

The Battle for Iran Lies in the Arab World, Not the UN Security Council The heat may be rising on Ahmadinejad, but Tehran’s fundamental strategic position has not altered.
Mark Thomas

The New Iraqi Army: Not Fit For Purpose Iraq’s armed forces will be incapable of deterring a potential adversary without a permanent commitment of Coalition forces.
Jeff Michaels

Drugs and Instability in Afghanistan Foreign nations’ assistance to Afghanistan precludes military operations that could be mounted against poppygrowers, drug producers, laboratories, smugglers, and the tribal/ethnic leaders and illegal militias who direct and protect the drug chain. There is not only a lack of consensus as to what action to take on the drug problem, but also a desire to place responsibility for action on the Afghan authorities or indeed any "other" nations or groups of nations.
Brian Cloughley

Shrapnel Country: An Alternative View of the 2007 Somali Intervention The multinational (that is, Ethiopian and US) intervention in Somalia has attracted a great deal of comment and criticism. However, despite its flaws, this intervention may yet have a positive impact. The current Somali experiment in power-sharing might just work.
Tapera Knox Chitiyo

The Dragon Flies and the Phoenix Dances: An East Asian Renaissance? The World Bank has officially confirmed that an ‘East Asian renaissance’ is upon us. But we must be careful to treat this Asian boom as a purely economic phenomenon and to heed the core aspects of this economic renaissance.
Alexander Neill

Libya: A Winter Warming The resolution of the case of the Bulgarian nurses opens up the next stage of normalization between Libya and the West. But where can relations between Libya and the West go now?
Jonathan Lindley

US Policy in Latin America: Applying the Long War The US has little to gain by rushing into a confrontation with Venezuela or any other Latin American country during 2006.
Mark Joyce

Northern Neocons or Business as Usual? Canada's Conservative Turn and Transatlantic Relations While some have attempted to portray Stephen Harper as the closest thing in Canada to an American neo-conservative such portrayals are poor attempts to distort the truth.
Mike Williams

Taiwan's New Presidency: A Golden Opportunity for Regional Stability The recent electoral victory for the Kuomintang has the potential to lead to a thaw in Sino-Taiwanese relations.
Dr Francis Yi-hua Kan

Of All the Regions of the World: The US in the Maghreb Of all the regions of the world, why did Rumsfeld and all have to walk into this one – and now?
Jonathan Lindley

The Next Four Years? American Foreign Policy Under John McCain As the US presidential elections draw ever closer, Michael Williams assesses the foreign policy outlook of Republican nominee, Senator John McCain
Michael Williams

South Africa's President Motlanthe: All Change, or Business as Usual Few mourn the passing of Thabo Mbeki from the South African presidency. The manner and timing of his dismissal, however, have raised questions about what will happen under the new president.
Knox Chitiyo

Burma Sells Gas to China Jobs for China and dollars for Burma’s generals, tentative gas sales, a pipeline plan and road building are bringing China and Burma closer together than ever.
David Fullbrook

South America's Political-Terrorist Nexus An analysis of the recent diplomatic hostilities between Columbia and Venezuela and of the political actors involved.
Mark Joyce

Russia’s Presidential Election: A Smooth Transfer of Power, or the Calm before the Storm? Although Dimitry Medvedev's victory was assured, it is as yet unclear how power will be managed between him and Vladimir Putin.
Carolina Vendil Pallin

Democracy in the Middle East: A Call For Change The fact that the Lebanese government has been unable to establish a monopoly on the use of force and the capacity to control its borders is just the latest example of the problematic nature of bringing democracy to this volatile region in the world.
Said Shehata

Re-thinking the NATO Budget: Short-Term Lessons, Long-Term Reform Equitable sharing of the military burden between NATO members is vital to the future sustainability of the alliance.
Laura Bridge

Japan's Self Defence Conundrum: National Defence Programme Guidelines A growing movement proclaims Japan's security posture should now be 'normalized' to allow force deployment in a combat role. What are the future possibilities then for Japanese military activities beyond domestic territories?
Alexander Neill

George Bush's Legacy in Africa: Hail to the Chief? An examination of George Bush's record on the African continent
Knox Chitiyo

Papering Over the Cracks? An Analysis of the New French Defence and National Security White Paper This article outlines the main areas of the most recent French Defence and National Security White Paper, and provides an analysis of the implications on France's foreign policy aspirations
Alastair Cameron

'The Politics of Fear' No More: Barack Obama's World View An Obama presidency could represent the best chance the US has had in decades to change perceptions about its global role, though reservations about the candidate's inexperience persist.
Michael Williams

Formal Strategies of Freedom in the Middle East Bush used his address to a meeting co-hosted by RUSI and IISS on 19 November to re-iterate his commitment to democracy in the Middle East.
Daniel Neep

Whitehall Watch: The Met Office - Committed to Change Reliable predictions of climate and weather systems have grown ever more important in modern warfare.
Wayne Elliott and Derrick Ryall

A New Era of Stability The recent Turkish elections delivered a landslide victory for the AKP. What was crucial about these elections?
Gulnur Aybet

The Fall of the Shevardnadze Government in Georgia: Revolution or Regime Change? The ousting from power of President Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia on 23 November could prove to be a key moment in the political and economic development of the troubled Caucasian republic.
Stephen Blackwell

Sino-American Relations and the New American President Despite all that has changed in the US after 9/11 and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the most important bilateral relationship which the US needs to nurture is with China.
Lloyd Thrall

European Effects: The EU’s Multidisciplinary Approach to Security What value does the EU bring as a global actor and what must it do to enhance its role further?
Tim Williams

Venezuela Puts Power in Reserve By promoting General Gustavo Rangel Briceño from the position of Commander of the Reserves to Defence Minister, Hugo Chavez underlined the centrality of the reserves to his defence planning.
Mark Joyce

The East Asia Summit and Energy Security The Cebu Declaration aims to address key issues affecting East Asian energy security. An important step, but more remains to be done.
Pablo Bustelo

Is NATO up to the Task in Afghanistan? Counter-insurgency campaigns are won not by body counts, but by the absence of killing and satisfying citizens’ hopes.
Greg Mills and Terence McNamee

Georgia, Russia and the EU The conflict that flared-up in the Caucasus between Georgia and Russia heralds uneasy times ahead for Russia and the West.
Alastair Cameron

Chinese Involvement in Africa: A Threat to the Good Governance Agenda? China's increasing involvement in Africa poses questions for the success of the Good Governance Agenda. This article outlines the effects China's engagement with Africa may have on Western projects there.
Lawrence Devlin

China and South Korea: Taking Each Other’s Measure President Myung Lee-bak’s summit visit to Beijing in May 2008 was declared a success by officials on both sides. Yet upon closer inspection the relationship remains one of the most problematic and complex in the region.
John Hemmings

Europe and the Western Balkans: The Day after Kosovo's Independence Assessing the implications of Kosovar independence and forecasting its affect on the rest of the region.
Ognyan Minchev

Dialogue, Partnership and an Eventual Union? Making Sense of our Security Relations in the Mediterranean Looking into the structures which define Europe’s relations with its southern neighbouring region, this article calls for further developments in EU-NATO co-operation within the security arena.
Alastair Cameron

Nuclear North Korea This article examines whether North Korea now poses any less of a menacing threat to its neighbours and if full denuclearization can be achieved.
Victoria Shin

Climate Change – The Gathering Momentum of the Security Debate There has been a veritable ‘tidal wave’ of political capital expended on the topic of climate change. Within this new focus of political and media attentions, the topic of climate change as a security issue has become an increasingly debated area by academics and politicians alike.
Dr Tobias Feakin

A Return to Geopolitics? NATO in Asia If NATO relations are pursued sloppily, what may result is not a better network for the Alliance to draw upon for risk-management operations, but a new superpower conflict between ideologically dissimilar factions.
Michael Williams

Afghan Opium: A Case of Uncontrollable Supply While there is demand, supplies will emerge to meet it.
Cindy Fazey

The Future Army Structure The route to achieving the aims of FAS may be simple but it demands a break from the past, something that many in the Army find difficult.
Amyas Godfrey

Everybody Needs Good Neighbours: Iraqi Foreign Policy After the Elections Present developments between Iraq and its neighbours are effectively laying down the foreign policy foundations for the post-election government
Daniel Neep

Making Friends and Threatening People There seems to be a curious mixture of pride and anger that the US is on the one hand treating Iran as a pariah state and on the other begging for its help.
Daniel Neep

Iraq: A Job For NATO? Recent weeks have seen calls for NATO to take on a formal role in Iraq become increasingly widespread and vociferous.
Mark Joyce

Treading Water? Bosnia, the Western Balkans and the EU Progress in Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to be stymied by deeply factional politics. Yet, this article argues that things may not be as bad as they seem, and that strengthened and renewed EU engagement is necessary to move the country towards the goal of a functioning non-ethnic democracy.
Adrian Johnson

NATO and Public Diplomacy: The Need for the Alliance to Tell its Own Story Now more than ever, NATO members need to engage in a sustained public relations campaign, and explain the continuing story of the Alliance to its voting publics.
Alexis Crow

North Korea and Iran This article explains the reasons for the differing treatment the Iranian and North Korean nuclear threats have recieved from the West, highlighting that the threat from Iran is greater than that of North Korea.
Jonathan Eyal

Serbia Chooses Europe (For Now) Serbia has once again gone to the polls, and the results have surprised observers. For those advocating a ‘European Serbia’, it is hasty to proclaim a miracle just yet: a coalition still has to be formed.
Adrian Johnson

Stepping Up to the Challenge: Will EUFOR Chad/CAR Deliver? The European Union's upcoming military operation in Africa is one of its largest, most ambitious and, hence, most challenging to date.
Alastair Cameron

Transformational Diplomacy: The Conceptual Repackaging of US Foreign Policy Although American officials now speak of US foreign policy in terms of transformational diplomacy, in fact it is actually a conceptual repackaging of the same foreign policy goals.
Kate Clouston

Iran's Nuclear Terrorism Are fears of a nuclear passage between Iran and international terrorism really justified?
Roger Howard

Security in Afghanistan: More Than a Job for NATO While the reconstruction of Afghanistan remains achievable, NATO and the international community must better coordinate their efforts, or risk strategic failure.
Michael Williams

Pre-Emptive War and US Foreign Policy The 2006 National Security Strategy is a slightly more refined document that makes nods towards allies, but it does not back away at all from pre-emption - it actually further institutionalizes it.
Michael Williams

Iran: Internal Indecision Continues Iran's competing power groups can offer restraint and caution that is not present in areas of President Ahmadinejad’s direct control
Jonathan Lindley

Iranian Influence in Iraq: How Serious a Threat? In the wake of the US invasion of Iraq, Iran has moved into the power vacuum left by the removal of Saddam. In a game of brinkmanship, Iran has demonstrated the strength of its position, whilst the US and Britain have been unable to prevent an increase of Iranian influence in Iraq
Mark Thomas

Washington and the Eurocrisis If Europe turning inward is dangerous for Washington, Europe’s leadership lashing outward to reassert damaged individual and collective influence also poses risks.
Phillip Cornell

Withdrawal Symptoms – The Next Phase in Iraq In military terms, knowing when to break off an engagement is as important a decision for the political leadership of a country as is the conduct of any part of the battle.
Amyas Godfrey

NATO: Staying the Course in the Balkans The Balkans has certainly not proved to be the quagmire that many analysts predicted when NATO first intervened militarily in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995.
Christopher Bennett

Decision Time for the Greek Cypriots This article explains that part of the problem in Cyprus is that Greek Cypriots still do not know what they really want from a settlement, or whether they want one at all.
James Ker-Lindsay

Lebanon: Al-Qa’ida’s Next Front There is a new generation of Jihadist Salafists determined to make Lebanon the frontline of the global jihad.
Hesham Younes

Nordic-Baltic Challenges and the New Swedish Government Will the new Government be a more active player in the European Union's European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP)?
Bo Ljung

Playing the Energy Game: Pipeline Politics in Russia's Backyard The Caspian region has become a battleground for foreign investors in an age where new sources of supply are short and energy consumption is on the rise.
Tammy Farrenkopf

More Style than Substance? The German Government Six Months in Power Looking back at the first six months in power, Angela Merkel has steadily emerged as the European leader to watch.
Sebastian Gerlach

The New German Government – A Change in Foreign Policy? On the foreign policy front, the question is whether Merkel’s government will be an agent of status quo or an agent of change.
Sebastian Gerlach

American Military Base Closures – Part II: Defense on the Defensive There is widespread scepticism on Capitol Hill that the Pentagon’s troop realignment plans will significantly improve the military’s ability to respond to global crises.
Mark Joyce

UN Security Council Reform: A Permanent Seat for Germany? Would the consideration of Germany as a new permanent member of the Security Council not involve an overrepresentation of European countries while other parts of the world remain ignored?
Christoph Peleikis

The Iranian Nuclear Crisis – Tomorrow Really is Another Day Stopping Iran from achieving nuclear capability is a good thing – not least because failure to do so will spawn a nuclear race throughout the region.
Turi Munthe

Back to the Balkans Under a United Nations mandate set up in 1999, the international forces stationed on the ground in Kosovo have achieved a great deal. Yet, the list of unresolved problems is just as long.
Jonathan Eyal

Resignation, Reform and Rioting: Three steps to re-election in Yemen The announcement that the President Salih will stand down in 2006, if it is acted upon, is a decisive breakthrough for democratization in the region.
Jonathan Lindley

Xinjiang: A Two-Pronged Threat to China’s Internal Stability When discussing major non-traditional security threats to China’s stability, many analysts cite unrest in Tibet, Taiwan, or the potential collapse of North Korea as Beijing’s most pressing concerns.
Ryan Clarke

US National Security Policy and Pakistan: The Importance of Benazir Bhutto? Assessing the implications of the assasination of Benazir Bhutto on US foreign policy and the security of Pakistan
Rudra Chaudhuri and Jeff Michaels

Schismatic Colossus: Nigeria’s Thrust for Greatness For new Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua, the grand strategic objective is to progress from the perception of Nigeria as ‘merely’ a force multiplier, to becoming a stability and development multiplier.
Knox Chitiyo

In Arms We Trust: US ‘Post-Iraq Strategy’ in the Making? On 29 July 2007, the Bush Administration announced plans to provide an estimated $63 billion worth of advanced weaponry to several of its key allies in the Middle East.
Christopher Pang

Taiwan: The Status Quo in Politics and Reality When Taiwanese respond to polls favouring maintenance of the Status Quo, they are in the majority saying ‘we want peace; we want to keep what we have now’.
Garry Hindle

The US–India Nuclear Deal America needs a strong India to broaden the world economy, guard a troubled corner, and counter China.
David Fullbrook

US China Policy: Trouble Hedging out East The United States will continue to implement a China policy that is run on the twin tracks of economic engagement and strategic containment.
Justin Hempson-Jones

Frozen Conflicts: Putting Salt on the Ice Now that the era of grand hopes for the West's relationship with Russia is over, it is time to turn attention on Russia's role in Kosovo and frozen post-Soviet conflicts.
Andrew Gardner

The Chinese-Japanese Spat: Failing to Reconcile Old Enemies What is at stake is not just the future composition of the UN Security Council, but the stability of the entire Asian continent.
Jonathan Eyal

The European Union's Imperial Overstretch The total sum of the EU’s regional interests and obligations are slowly but surely becoming larger than its ability to defend them all simultaneously.
Klaus Dalgaard

NATO Returns to Politics In both its political and military endeavours, broader transformational currents have provided NATO with opportunities to accelerate the reforms it has been pursuing for several years.
Mark Joyce

Russia Insists Upon Preventive Strikes: The Possible Options When General Baluevsky, the new chief of Russian General Staff, declared on 8 September that Russia could deliver preventive strikes on terrorist bases anywhere in the world, most experts saw in that either an attempt to draw attention away from the dismal performance of security services in Beslan or simply a strategic bluff.
Dr. Pavel K. Baev

Kenya: Africa's Nightmare Scenario? The political and humanitarian crisis which has engulfed Kenya following the disputed results of the 27 December 2007 Presidential election has been detrimental to its image and reputation.
Amy Harris

Resource Civil Wars This article argues that global warming and environmental destruction will lead to international realignments that could have serious domestic repercussions within those states that make them.
Roger Howard

Australia's Strategic Dilemmas The next Australian government will face some tough dilemmas in international policy, especially in defence and security.
Rory Medcalf

The People’s Liberation Army’s Mandate of Heaven Chinese leaders have been less than transparent as to the direction of the Communist Party’s armed wing, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Alexander Neill

Soviet Lessons for NATO in Afghanistan Does the Soviet experience have any relevance for the international forces in the country today?
Greg Mills and Martin Edmonds

The Cross Strait Status Quo: Troubled Waters Ahead The onset of the new political cycle in Taiwan coincided with the first anniversary of the adoption by China of its Anti-Secession Law.
Alex Neill

The Sea Base and American Expeditionary Transformation The concept behind the sea base represents a fundamental shift in the focus of American naval strategy from the ocean to land.
Jia Xu

Reinvigorating the North Atlantic Council NATO should do more ‘jaw-jaw’, as well as more ‘war-war’.
Mark Joyce

Indonesia – Making the Best of a Tragedy or a Cynical Manipulation of Events? Events in Indonesia have shown signs of either a divided community being brought together by the tragedy or the government taking advantage of an unexpected opportunity to finally end the violent actions of GAM.
Andrew Kennedy

Taiwan: Yet Another Close Election With such a large proportion of global maritime trade passing through the waterways in the vicinity of Singapore it is natural that the city state should be at the forefront of efforts to mitigate the increasing threat to seaborne trade
Andrew Kennedy

Unrest in Côte d’Ivoire Kurt Shillinger

Pakistan's Tribal Areas: Perception and Reality The Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan are, in the words of Toynbee, the ‘Crossroads of Civilisations’. A key front in the War on Terror, new policies are needed to solve the problems in the area.
Noshad Khan

Whitehall Watch: The FCO and Business: What Are the Obstacles to Co-operation? The Security Information Service for Business Overseas (SISBO), formed in 2003, exists to enable companies to tap into the government’s knowledge of foreign countries.
Mark Stollery

Assessing the Modernization of Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces and its Implications for Regional Security Azerbaijani military modernization may have mixed effects for regional security. While vital energy infrastructure will be safer, tensions may increase with Armenia and seeking NATO membership will draw in Russian concerns.
James Bosbotinis

Resetting the Political Clock: Thai Junta Guarantees New Era of Instability Few in the international community demonstrated concern about Thailand as it marked the year anniversary of its latest coup d’etat on 19 September.
Andrew Legon

Small Arms and its Implications for US Security Policy The United States has in recent weeks been strongly criticized by its southern neighbours for exacerbating violence in the region through a failure to impose more restrictive firearms legislation.
Mark Joyce

Ceasefire in Nepal: Threat or Opportunity? There has been an increase in feeling within Nepal that the king has become an impediment to democracy.
Justin Hempson-Jones

Building a Constitution: Fracture Lines in the New Iraq Drafting a constitution that meets the demands of all of Iraq’s diverse communities is overly optimistic.
Meredith Carroll

China's Weapons Ban The EU’s ban on weapons exports to China has become anachronistic in only one sense: Europe’s economic interests are no longer in accord with its operation.
Sheng-ren Liu

Rebuilding the Silk Road: Developments and Prospects for Security in the South Caucasus James Bosbotinis and Irina Ghaplanyan

Pirates of the South Pacific Piracy clearly remains a serious problem today despite the general impression that it faded away along with the age of sail. South East Asia provides an ideal location for maritime piracy for a number of reasons.
Donald Dingwall

Around and About Westminster: Debating Defence, the Eurofighter and Future Capabilities January 2005 has seen four mainstream events at Westminster relating to defence and security issues.
Humphry Crum Ewing

Beijing Worries About Energy: China Moves to Secure Supplies China’s remarkable economic growth during the past quarter-century has surpassed its ability to fuel its economy and has been forced for the past decade to import a steadily increasing percentage of its energy.
Bernard D. Cole

Engagement, Containment or Confrontation? Desperately Seeking Tehran Despite the multiple and manifold divisions in transatlantic relations of late, policy-makers in Washington and the European capitals seem to be edging towards accord on at least one issue: our present policies on Iran are not working.
Daniel Neep

The Tragedy of Russia - Lessons Unlearnt In his weekend televised address to a nation still stunned by the heavy loss of life in the school terrorist hostage crisis, President Putin promised to draw the appropriate lessons from the tragedy.
Jonathan Eyal

Is the Ministry of Defence Delivering the Right Message? Perhaps there comes a time in the lifetime of any government where it can’t seem to get anything right. Looking at the recent media coverage of the new defence plans this certainly seems to be the case for the Ministry of Defence.
Ellie Goldsworthy

NATO, Iraq and The Afghan Analogy When NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer faces the media in Istanbul at the end of June, he will be braced for a barrage of questions on Iraq. His answers are likely to be brief and guarded.
Mark Joyce

The Istanbul Initiative? Finding a Real Role for NATO in the Middle East and North Africa Everyone is talking about it. The idea that NATO might deploy its troops in Iraq to plug the security gap is the issue of the day, the sexiest subject on the agenda at the Istanbul Summit at the end of June.
Daniel Neep

Challenge and Contestation in Lebanon Lebanon’s political life seems to be growing in autonomy, paradoxically as a result of developments at the international level following 11 September.
Daniel Neep

The ABM Treaty - A Cold War Relic or the Cornerstone of Strategic Stability? USA, Russia, ABM Treaty, ICBM, Cold War, START,
Andrew Kennedy

Security in Southern Lebanon and the Future of Hizbollah Following the hasty withdrawal of Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) from its so-called security zone in southern Lebanon at the end of May 2000, the security situation along the Israeli-Lebanese border has been surprisingly calm despite the three month security vacuum without the full deployment of the Lebanese Army or UNIFIL.
Dr Magnus Ranstorp

Sierra Leone - Saving Africa from Another Disaster Sierra Leone was an utterly predictable but ultimately unpredicted crisis. It should be the last such disaster, not only for the good of Africa, but for the credibility of the UN as well.
Dr Jonathan Eyal

Israeli Rout or Retreat in Strength? The uneasy stand-off between Hizbollah and Israel - on either side of the international border between Lebanon and the Jewish state - is likely to continue as long as progress between Israel and Syria over the Golan Heights remains stymied.
Neil Partrick