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RUSI Newsbrief
Monthly briefings on current issues in international defence and security and the military sciences.
North Korea: After the Bomb
With the United States confirming that Pyongyang had indeed, as it claimed, conducted an underground nuclear test on 9 October, this article analyzes the effects of the bomb on the country, region and international community.
Aidan Foster-Carter
Motives and Implications Behind China's ASAT Test
China’s ASAT test, coupled with the revelation last year that a US satellite was ‘painted’ by a Chinese ground-based laser presents unsettling questions about China’s commitment to arms control, the ramifications of its rise as a major power, its military posture and foreign policy toward the United States and civil-military relations in China.
Kevin Pollpeter
Post-Election Vertigo – Quo Vadis America?
Although Bush recently described Bob Gates – his new Secretary of Defense – as an ‘agent of change’, Gates’s track record on military affairs and innovation is not strong. So it is difficult to see from where the change regarding Iraq will come.
Michael Williams
North Korea and Iran Coming to the Fore
For a US president facing mid-term elections from a position of weakness, this is hardly the best moment to make momentous decisions on North Korea and Iran
Jonathan Eyal
US Military Overstretch: Fact or Fiction
There are not enough troops to adequately provide for all of the commitments of the US Global War on Terror, nor is there enough funding to pay for more. Is the US military suffering from imperial overstretch?
Kate Clouston
China's Dangerous Energy Nexus
Over energy security, the United States and China are starting to find themselves bound into a cycle of mutual distrust.
Dealing with Iran
This article discusses the prospects for reform and the future of US-Iranian relations.
Aaron P. Dunne
Japan's Security Policy Rut
Taro Aso is the new Japanese Prime Minister. But while no one doubts his ability, it is unlikely that he will be able to lift Japan out of the security rut it has found itself in for the last few years.
John Hemmings
Divided Loyalties
This article discusses the relationship between South and North Korea.
James A. Foley
British and French Navies Neck and Neck?
This paper studies the trends in the composition of the British and French navies since the end of the Cold War and analyses the implications of these trends on future capability and possible partnership.
Michael Codner
Activity in South Asia
The past year has seen many developments in the India-Pakistan relationship as the two sides have progressed from the nadir of last summer when the two sides came to the brink of conflict.
Andrew Kennedy
A Rude Awakening: European Security and Georgia
The recent war between Russia and Georgia has plunged Europe into its biggest security crisis in decades. And, for once, Georgia is not a matter which can be left to the Americans alone.
Jonathan Eyal
Is Space Weaponisation Inevitable?
Recently, reports of the destruction of ageing satellites by the missiles of large powers have been frequent. This article analyses whether these events are the prefigure the weaponisation of space.
Bharath Gopalaswamy
Peace in our Time? The Israeli-Syrian Peace Accord
On 21 May 2008, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made the surprise revelation that Israel had been engaged in secret peace talks with Syria, bringing the two sides together for the first time since 2000.
Daniel Neep
French Security and Defence Policy under Sarkozy: Gazing into the Crystal Ball
Whilst the dust has barely settled from Presidential and Parliamentary elections in which security and defence issues were very largely absent from the debate, interested parties both within and outside France are already trying to discern the directions in which the new President and his senior team will steer France on these issues.
Dr Robert Grant
The Obama Revolution
Barack Obama’s campaign shook up American politics; this article questions whether his presidency will have a similar effect on international affairs. It lays out the likely immediate changes which will be seen in US foreign policy and outlines the possible stance his administration will take on other pressing concerns.
Lisa Aronsson
China and South Korea: Taking Each Other’s Measure
President Myung Lee-bak’s summit visit to Beijing in May 2008 was declared a success by officials on both sides. Yet upon closer inspection the relationship remains one of the most problematic and complex in the region.
John Hemmings
Nuclear North Korea
This article examines whether North Korea now poses any less of a menacing threat to its neighbours and if full denuclearization can be achieved.
Victoria Shin
The Wavering US-ROK Alliance
Changes in America's Korea strategy have rocked bilateral relations with the Republic of Korea, and highlighted some uncomfortable truths.
Victoria Shin
Syria Cornered
When Bashar Al-Asad succeeded his father in June 2000, he was broadly well received. This optimism now seems a very long time ago.
Jonathan Lindley
Bush, Mark II
With President Bush now reconfirmed in the White House, Europe’s adjustment to the realities will have to be quick, but may yet be painful.
Jonathan Eyal
Making Friends and Threatening People
There seems to be a curious mixture of pride and anger that the US is on the one hand treating Iran as a pariah state and on the other begging for its help.
Daniel Neep
Treading Water? Bosnia, the Western Balkans and the EU
Progress in Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to be stymied by deeply factional politics. Yet, this article argues that things may not be as bad as they seem, and that strengthened and renewed EU engagement is necessary to move the country towards the goal of a functioning non-ethnic democracy.
Adrian Johnson
North Korea and Iran
This article explains the reasons for the differing treatment the Iranian and North Korean nuclear threats have recieved from the West, highlighting that the threat from Iran is greater than that of North Korea.
Jonathan Eyal
More Spurious Saving by the MoD
This article argues in favour of independent cost and timescale forecasts for all major UK defence projects, as is done in the US. It is important that MoD should implement this recommendation, and that such independent forecasts become an integral part of the approval process.
David Kirkpatrick
Iran's Nuclear Terrorism
Are fears of a nuclear passage between Iran and international terrorism really justified?
Roger Howard
US-EU Differences in Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Both the US and EU agree on the substance of the threat from nuclear proliferation. However, there is divergence of the preferred means for ensuring non-proliferation.
Sara Kutchesfahani
Pre-Emptive War and US Foreign Policy
The 2006 National Security Strategy is a slightly more refined document that makes nods towards allies, but it does not back away at all from pre-emption - it actually further institutionalizes it.
Michael Williams
Iran: Internal Indecision Continues
Iran's competing power groups can offer restraint and caution that is not present in areas of President Ahmadinejad’s direct control
Jonathan Lindley
Iranian Influence in Iraq: How Serious a Threat?
In the wake of the US invasion of Iraq, Iran has moved into the power vacuum left by the removal of Saddam. In a game of brinkmanship, Iran has demonstrated the strength of its position, whilst the US and Britain have been unable to prevent an increase of Iranian influence in Iraq
Mark Thomas
Transformation Under Fire
When Donald Rumsfeld came to the Pentagon four years ago, he took on the challenge to implement an agenda near to his heart: military transformation.
Peter Spiegel
Turkey’s Foreign Policy: Strategic Depth
The ruling AKP’s foreign policy of ‘strategic depth’ invites the possibility of restructuring relations between the East and the West on a footing that reconciles its traditional roles with both.
Elif Aydin
A Glimpse of Clarity in China’s Military Modernisation
The annual Pentagon report is now an integral part of the ‘China threat’ debate and has evolved to become both the comprehensive lexicon of the Chinese military order of battle and a benchmark for the analysis of the PLA.
Alexander Neill
Time for Trust in Trident?
March saw the unprecedented vote in Parliament on the Government’s proposal that Britain should remain a nuclear power by renewing its independent strategic deterrent.
Lee Willett
Dealing with the Dragon
While government ministers receive frequent criticism, some of it occasionally unjustified, it remains a fact that they have an unenviable task.
Andrew Kennedy
The US–India Nuclear Deal
America needs a strong India to broaden the world economy, guard a troubled corner, and counter China.
David Fullbrook
Russia Insists Upon Preventive Strikes: The Possible Options
When General Baluevsky, the new chief of Russian General Staff, declared on 8 September that Russia could deliver preventive strikes on terrorist bases anywhere in the world, most experts saw in that either an attempt to draw attention away from the dismal performance of security services in Beslan or simply a strategic bluff.
Dr. Pavel K. Baev
North Korea
Weapons of Mass Destruction, (WMD), USA, Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation
Andrew Kennedy
The Russian Navy: A Blue-water Revival?
Towards the end of his eight year reign as president, Vladimir Putin seemed increasingly determined to restore Russia’s status as a major global power. But the revival of Russia's Navy may not be as extensive as first thought.
Richard Winstanley
Australia's Strategic Dilemmas
The next Australian government will face some tough dilemmas in international policy, especially in defence and security.
Rory Medcalf
Project 921: China's Quest to Conquer Space
The steppe grasslands of the People's Republic of China's Inner Mongolian autonomous region have borne witness to some momentous events in China's space programme over the last two years.
Alexander Neill
Japan - Strategic Developments, Fuel and Alliances
While Japan is experiencing political paralysis, the political debate and news coverage focuses largely on the daily political minutiae and not the broader strategic political issues at hand.
Nils G.Bildt
China's Weapons Ban
The EU’s ban on weapons exports to China has become anachronistic in only one sense: Europe’s economic interests are no longer in accord with its operation.
Sheng-ren Liu
At Last … Endgame in Sight in Iraq?
In June 2004, in the run-up to the hand-over of power from the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG), for the first time there were audible military mutterings of the term ‘strategic failure’ to describe the apparent collapse of the original objectives of the US-led mission in Iraq.
Greg Mills