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Nov 2008, Vol. 28, No. 11
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RUSI Newsbrief

Monthly briefings on current issues in international defence and security and the military sciences.
Search: nuclear
North KoreaNorth Korea: After the Bomb With the United States confirming that Pyongyang had indeed, as it claimed, conducted an underground nuclear test on 9 October, this article analyzes the effects of the bomb on the country, region and international community.
Aidan Foster-Carter
China spaceMotives and Implications Behind China's ASAT Test China’s ASAT test, coupled with the revelation last year that a US satellite was ‘painted’ by a Chinese ground-based laser presents unsettling questions about China’s commitment to arms control, the ramifications of its rise as a major power, its military posture and foreign policy toward the United States and civil-military relations in China.
Kevin Pollpeter
Post-Election Vertigo – Quo Vadis America? Although Bush recently described Bob Gates – his new Secretary of Defense – as an ‘agent of change’, Gates’s track record on military affairs and innovation is not strong. So it is difficult to see from where the change regarding Iraq will come.
Michael Williams
Nuclear signNorth Korea and Iran Coming to the Fore For a US president facing mid-term elections from a position of weakness, this is hardly the best moment to make momentous decisions on North Korea and Iran
Jonathan Eyal
The Battle for Iran Lies in the Arab World, Not the UN Security Council The heat may be rising on Ahmadinejad, but Tehran’s fundamental strategic position has not altered.
Mark Thomas
US DoDUS Military Overstretch: Fact or Fiction There are not enough troops to adequately provide for all of the commitments of the US Global War on Terror, nor is there enough funding to pay for more. Is the US military suffering from imperial overstretch?
Kate Clouston
Burj al-ArabThe Booming Emirate: Is Dubai the World’s Most Obvious Terrorist Target? Is Dubai about to become the world’s most obvious target for Al-Qa’ida?
Tom Hill
East Asia MapThe Dragon Flies and the Phoenix Dances: An East Asian Renaissance? The World Bank has officially confirmed that an ‘East Asian renaissance’ is upon us. But we must be careful to treat this Asian boom as a purely economic phenomenon and to heed the core aspects of this economic renaissance.
Alexander Neill
Taiwan flagTaiwan's New Presidency: A Golden Opportunity for Regional Stability The recent electoral victory for the Kuomintang has the potential to lead to a thaw in Sino-Taiwanese relations.
Dr Francis Yi-hua Kan
McCain 3The Next Four Years? American Foreign Policy Under John McCain As the US presidential elections draw ever closer, Michael Williams assesses the foreign policy outlook of Republican nominee, Senator John McCain
Michael Williams
China's Energy Security: What is the Right Fuel Mix? What is good news for energy security may well be very bad news in terms of CO2 emissions and the environment.
Cornelia Meyer
China's Dangerous Energy Nexus Over energy security, the United States and China are starting to find themselves bound into a cycle of mutual distrust.

RUSImotifDealing with Iran This article discusses the prospects for reform and the future of US-Iranian relations.
Aaron P. Dunne
Japan's Security Policy Rut Taro Aso is the new Japanese Prime Minister. But while no one doubts his ability, it is unlikely that he will be able to lift Japan out of the security rut it has found itself in for the last few years.
John Hemmings
RUSImotifDivided Loyalties This article discusses the relationship between South and North Korea.
James A. Foley
The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty at the Crossroads The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is over a decade old. Now, reinvigorated US leadership is required to take it forward: without it, the treaty may be doomed.
Bharath Gopalaswamy and Andreas Persbo
Hugo ChavezSouth America's Political-Terrorist Nexus An analysis of the recent diplomatic hostilities between Columbia and Venezuela and of the political actors involved.
Mark Joyce
Persian GulfGulf States in a Muddle over Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions The publication of the US National Intelligence Estimate has caught the Gulf States off balance.
Henry Freeman
Japan's Self Defence Conundrum: National Defence Programme Guidelines A growing movement proclaims Japan's security posture should now be 'normalized' to allow force deployment in a combat role. What are the future possibilities then for Japanese military activities beyond domestic territories?
Alexander Neill
Barack Obama'The Politics of Fear' No More: Barack Obama's World View An Obama presidency could represent the best chance the US has had in decades to change perceptions about its global role, though reservations about the candidate's inexperience persist.
Michael Williams
British and French Navies Neck and Neck? This paper studies the trends in the composition of the British and French navies since the end of the Cold War and analyses the implications of these trends on future capability and possible partnership.
Michael Codner
US Stylized flagFalse Expectations: Personality, Politics and Policy in the Transatlantic Area US-Europe relations have experienced some difficult times this past decade. Is this drift an unstoppable occurrence and the next era in transatlantic relations?
Mike Williams
TridentThe Technology of Trident: Science and Risk in Public Debate Now that the decision has been made and extensively analyzed for its policy implications, it is time to consider what was omitted from the public debate and what lies ahead.
Gavin Ireland
China America FlagSino-American Relations and the New American President Despite all that has changed in the US after 9/11 and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the most important bilateral relationship which the US needs to nurture is with China.
Lloyd Thrall
UN Security CouncilDavid versus Goliath: South Africa Attempts to Level the Global Playing Field South Africa's recent actions as a non-permanent member of the Security Council have raised eyebrows.
Peter Fabricius
Activity in South Asia The past year has seen many developments in the India-Pakistan relationship as the two sides have progressed from the nadir of last summer when the two sides came to the brink of conflict.
Andrew Kennedy
A Rude Awakening: European Security and Georgia The recent war between Russia and Georgia has plunged Europe into its biggest security crisis in decades. And, for once, Georgia is not a matter which can be left to the Americans alone.
Jonathan Eyal
Is Space Weaponisation Inevitable? Recently, reports of the destruction of ageing satellites by the missiles of large powers have been frequent. This article analyses whether these events are the prefigure the weaponisation of space.
Bharath Gopalaswamy
GolanPeace in our Time? The Israeli-Syrian Peace Accord On 21 May 2008, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made the surprise revelation that Israel had been engaged in secret peace talks with Syria, bringing the two sides together for the first time since 2000.
Daniel Neep
French Security and Defence Policy under Sarkozy: Gazing into the Crystal Ball Whilst the dust has barely settled from Presidential and Parliamentary elections in which security and defence issues were very largely absent from the debate, interested parties both within and outside France are already trying to discern the directions in which the new President and his senior team will steer France on these issues.
Dr Robert Grant
Energy SecurityThe East Asia Summit and Energy Security The Cebu Declaration aims to address key issues affecting East Asian energy security. An important step, but more remains to be done.
Pablo Bustelo
Nuclear Deterrence: The South Asia Chapter India, Pakistan, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Diplomacy, Musharaf, Vajpayee
Andrew Kennedy
Obama revolutionThe Obama Revolution Barack Obama’s campaign shook up American politics; this article questions whether his presidency will have a similar effect on international affairs. It lays out the likely immediate changes which will be seen in US foreign policy and outlines the possible stance his administration will take on other pressing concerns.
Lisa Aronsson
Lee Myung-bak smallChina and South Korea: Taking Each Other’s Measure President Myung Lee-bak’s summit visit to Beijing in May 2008 was declared a success by officials on both sides. Yet upon closer inspection the relationship remains one of the most problematic and complex in the region.
John Hemmings
Israeli Attack on Syria: The Quest for Unknown Unknowns On 2 October the Israeli military censor confirmed an air attack on Syria. However, details relating to the target and the nature of the attack remain ‘known unknowns’.
Alistair Harris
Kim Jong-IlNuclear North Korea This article examines whether North Korea now poses any less of a menacing threat to its neighbours and if full denuclearization can be achieved.
Victoria Shin
Mahmoud Ahmedinejad IranIran’s Domestic Crisis: A Chance for a Deal over Iraq? The US and Iran are scheduled to meet in Baghdad to discuss various issues affecting both states. Internally however, the Iranian regime rests on weaker foundations.
Christopher Pang
Korean SoldierThe Wavering US-ROK Alliance Changes in America's Korea strategy have rocked bilateral relations with the Republic of Korea, and highlighted some uncomfortable truths.
Victoria Shin
EU flagAfter Admitting Failure on Iran, Will Europe Take the Gloves Off? A leaked EU report recognises that diplomatic efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons programme have failed. Member states must decide whether they can accept a nuclear Iran, and what can be done to stop its programme.
Tim Williams
Syria Cornered When Bashar Al-Asad succeeded his father in June 2000, he was broadly well received. This optimism now seems a very long time ago.
Jonathan Lindley
Britain's Nuclear Deterrent – Keeping the Options Open Nuclear capability for the UK has more to do with international status and influence than with direct security.
Michael Codner
The View from King Charles Street The days of grand design in British foreign policy seem to have gone.
Sir Paul Lever
If it's Broke, Fix it: The Reform of Two Intelligence Services As with the reports which provided the impetus for US and UK intelligence service reforms, their styles are very different.
Paul Lever
Bush, Mark II With President Bush now reconfirmed in the White House, Europe’s adjustment to the realities will have to be quick, but may yet be painful.
Jonathan Eyal
Making Friends and Threatening People There seems to be a curious mixture of pride and anger that the US is on the one hand treating Iran as a pariah state and on the other begging for its help.
Daniel Neep
US-Russian Nuclear Non-Proliferation Post-11 September: Old Problems, Improved Relations, Extra Money and Ne Weapons of Mass Destruction, WMD, Nuclear Proliferation, North Korea, Soviet Union, United States
Zackary Moss
The U.S. Nuclear Review: Elements of the Emerging Posture United States, nuclear, Department of Defense, arms control
Dan Plesch
Bosnia flagTreading Water? Bosnia, the Western Balkans and the EU Progress in Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to be stymied by deeply factional politics. Yet, this article argues that things may not be as bad as they seem, and that strengthened and renewed EU engagement is necessary to move the country towards the goal of a functioning non-ethnic democracy.
Adrian Johnson
North Korea and Iran This article explains the reasons for the differing treatment the Iranian and North Korean nuclear threats have recieved from the West, highlighting that the threat from Iran is greater than that of North Korea.
Jonathan Eyal
MusharrafPakistan’s Relations with the US: Risks and Opportunities A recent air attack by US-led forces which killed eleven Pakistani soldiers is only one incident in a rocky relationship, which has had its ups and downs since Pakistan’s independence.
Noshad Khan
Iran elections 2Iran's Parliamentary Elections: Conservatives at a Crossroads Conservative powers have triumphed in the recent parliamentary elections. This article looks at the fall out from these elections and ahead to the presidential elections in 2009
Christopher pang
More Spurious Saving by the MoD This article argues in favour of independent cost and timescale forecasts for all major UK defence projects, as is done in the US. It is important that MoD should implement this recommendation, and that such independent forecasts become an integral part of the approval process.
David Kirkpatrick
The German Debate on Anti-Terror Legislation: Much Ado about Nothing? Last September’s foiled terrorist attacks in Germany have precipitated a fierce debate on anti-terror legislation.
Sebastian Drutschmann
False Expectations II: Polities and Policy in the Transatlantic Area The appearance of transatlantic political reconciliation masks some deep schisms. Washington foreign policy insiders dismiss hostility as a problem associated with the Bush administration. But beneath this lies a wider stream of discontent.
Michael Williams
Mahmoud Ahmedinejad IranIran's Nuclear Terrorism Are fears of a nuclear passage between Iran and international terrorism really justified?
Roger Howard
Nuclear signUS-EU Differences in Nuclear Non-Proliferation Both the US and EU agree on the substance of the threat from nuclear proliferation. However, there is divergence of the preferred means for ensuring non-proliferation.
Sara Kutchesfahani
The Most Dangerous Country in the World? The US, for all of the anti-American sentiment on offer today, is still seen by most as an attractive place to live.
Michael Williams
Pre-Emptive War and US Foreign Policy The 2006 National Security Strategy is a slightly more refined document that makes nods towards allies, but it does not back away at all from pre-emption - it actually further institutionalizes it.
Michael Williams
Iran: Internal Indecision Continues Iran's competing power groups can offer restraint and caution that is not present in areas of President Ahmadinejad’s direct control
Jonathan Lindley
A Purple Proposal: Organizing and Integrating the Military Contribution to National Resilience Whatever conclusions one might draw from events in recent history and the immediate past, it is worth questioning some assumptions as to the purposes of military forces.
Michael Codner
Iranian Influence in Iraq: How Serious a Threat? In the wake of the US invasion of Iraq, Iran has moved into the power vacuum left by the removal of Saddam. In a game of brinkmanship, Iran has demonstrated the strength of its position, whilst the US and Britain have been unable to prevent an increase of Iranian influence in Iraq
Mark Thomas
Reform of the United Nations: Stalled Before it Even Began UN reform remains both inevitable and necessary, but if the current rows continue, it will be better to postpone the entire project.
Jonathan Eyal
Transformation Under Fire When Donald Rumsfeld came to the Pentagon four years ago, he took on the challenge to implement an agenda near to his heart: military transformation.
Peter Spiegel
Open Letter to President George W. Bush Dear President: Congratulations. You have now, definitively, secured your mandate at home. It is time to do so abroad.
Turi Munthe
Turkey’s Foreign Policy: Strategic Depth The ruling AKP’s foreign policy of ‘strategic depth’ invites the possibility of restructuring relations between the East and the West on a footing that reconciles its traditional roles with both.
Elif Aydin
China America FlagA Glimpse of Clarity in China’s Military Modernisation The annual Pentagon report is now an integral part of the ‘China threat’ debate and has evolved to become both the comprehensive lexicon of the Chinese military order of battle and a benchmark for the analysis of the PLA.
Alexander Neill
VanguardTime for Trust in Trident? March saw the unprecedented vote in Parliament on the Government’s proposal that Britain should remain a nuclear power by renewing its independent strategic deterrent.
Lee Willett
China spacePressure Point Warfare: China Swings the Assassin's Mace In the wake of China’s successful anti-satellite test in January 2007, observers are scrambling to interpret the signals. The unveiling of such weapons suggests a policy of ‘pressure-point warfare’.
Alexander Neill
Playing the Energy Game: Pipeline Politics in Russia's Backyard The Caspian region has become a battleground for foreign investors in an age where new sources of supply are short and energy consumption is on the rise.
Tammy Farrenkopf
More Style than Substance? The German Government Six Months in Power Looking back at the first six months in power, Angela Merkel has steadily emerged as the European leader to watch.
Sebastian Gerlach
American Military Base Closures – Part II: Defense on the Defensive There is widespread scepticism on Capitol Hill that the Pentagon’s troop realignment plans will significantly improve the military’s ability to respond to global crises.
Mark Joyce
UN Security Council Reform: A Permanent Seat for Germany? Would the consideration of Germany as a new permanent member of the Security Council not involve an overrepresentation of European countries while other parts of the world remain ignored?
Christoph Peleikis
The Iranian Nuclear Crisis – Tomorrow Really is Another Day Stopping Iran from achieving nuclear capability is a good thing – not least because failure to do so will spawn a nuclear race throughout the region.
Turi Munthe
Dealing with the Dragon While government ministers receive frequent criticism, some of it occasionally unjustified, it remains a fact that they have an unenviable task.
Andrew Kennedy
US National Security Policy and Pakistan: The Importance of Benazir Bhutto? Assessing the implications of the assasination of Benazir Bhutto on US foreign policy and the security of Pakistan
Rudra Chaudhuri and Jeff Michaels
In Arms We Trust: US ‘Post-Iraq Strategy’ in the Making? On 29 July 2007, the Bush Administration announced plans to provide an estimated $63 billion worth of advanced weaponry to several of its key allies in the Middle East.
Christopher Pang
The US–India Nuclear Deal America needs a strong India to broaden the world economy, guard a troubled corner, and counter China.
David Fullbrook
US China Policy: Trouble Hedging out East The United States will continue to implement a China policy that is run on the twin tracks of economic engagement and strategic containment.
Justin Hempson-Jones
Chinese Regional Military Intentions: The Pentagon demands answers US defence diplomats have decided to remove the kid gloves, roll up their sleeves and announce very publicly their concern that China’s peaceful rise might not be quite so peaceful after all.
Alexander Neill
The Chinese-Japanese Spat: Failing to Reconcile Old Enemies What is at stake is not just the future composition of the UN Security Council, but the stability of the entire Asian continent.
Jonathan Eyal
Russia Insists Upon Preventive Strikes: The Possible Options When General Baluevsky, the new chief of Russian General Staff, declared on 8 September that Russia could deliver preventive strikes on terrorist bases anywhere in the world, most experts saw in that either an attempt to draw attention away from the dismal performance of security services in Beslan or simply a strategic bluff.
Dr. Pavel K. Baev
North Korea Weapons of Mass Destruction, (WMD), USA, Nuclear Weapons, Proliferation
Andrew Kennedy
NATO’s Nuclear Weapons Policy: Nuclear Sharing and Future Roles Weapons of Mass Destruction, WMD, Strategic Concept, Antlantic Alliance,
Zackary Moss
Russian CV Admiral KuznetsovThe Russian Navy: A Blue-water Revival? Towards the end of his eight year reign as president, Vladimir Putin seemed increasingly determined to restore Russia’s status as a major global power. But the revival of Russia's Navy may not be as extensive as first thought.
Richard Winstanley
South Korean FlagSouth Korean Security Policy Under a New Banner Assessing the changes and developments in South Korean security policy, after the election of Lee Myungbak and the GNP
John Hemmings
A $10 billion Statement: Indian Aircraft Procurement and Foreign Policy Historically, and in the case of India, the ‘political’ aspect of military hardware acquisition has played a deterministic role in choosing suppliers.
Rudra Chaudhuri
Australia's Strategic Dilemmas The next Australian government will face some tough dilemmas in international policy, especially in defence and security.
Rory Medcalf
Estranged Democracies to Engaged Partners: US-India Strategic Relations in the 21st Century The future of US-India relations can be characterised in terms of ‘engaged partners.’ While the estrangement thesis is certainly not dead, it no longer dominates the overarching strategic discourse between the two states.
Rudra Chaudhuri
China spaceThe People’s Liberation Army’s Mandate of Heaven Chinese leaders have been less than transparent as to the direction of the Communist Party’s armed wing, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Alexander Neill
Project 921: China's Quest to Conquer Space The steppe grasslands of the People's Republic of China's Inner Mongolian autonomous region have borne witness to some momentous events in China's space programme over the last two years.
Alexander Neill
The Role of the UN in the Fight Against Terrorism The United Nations is logically the most appropriate, if not the only, forum in which multilateral engagement on terrorism can take place.
Rebecca Cox
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: What Price Plutonium Disposition? Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destructions, WMD, NPT
Zackary Moss
Russian flagRussia’s New Great Game in Oil-Rich States Employing strategies redolent of a new Great Game, Russia has stepped up its diplomatic and trade activities in the Middle East and North Africa.
Tamsin Carlisle
Japan - Strategic Developments, Fuel and Alliances While Japan is experiencing political paralysis, the political debate and news coverage focuses largely on the daily political minutiae and not the broader strategic political issues at hand.
Nils G.Bildt
Assessing the Modernization of Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces and its Implications for Regional Security Azerbaijani military modernization may have mixed effects for regional security. While vital energy infrastructure will be safer, tensions may increase with Armenia and seeking NATO membership will draw in Russian concerns.
James Bosbotinis
Vladimir PutinPutin's New Set-up: Consolidating Power in Russia Recent personnel changes made in Russia suggest how President Putin is planning to handle the 2008 transition, when his term in office expires.
Irina Isakova
The Conservative Party Defence Policy: Where Are They Now? The UK defence budget is shrinking. This article discusses the effect of this trend on the current state of affairs in Britain.
Kate Clouston
China's Weapons Ban The EU’s ban on weapons exports to China has become anachronistic in only one sense: Europe’s economic interests are no longer in accord with its operation.
Sheng-ren Liu
Around and About Westminster: Numerous Questions, but not yet Many Answers Since the General Election, Parliamentary attention to defence and security issues has been, generally speaking, simmering, and sometimes bubbling up, around the edges of business at Westminster.
Humphry Crum Ewing
Engagement, Containment or Confrontation? Desperately Seeking Tehran Despite the multiple and manifold divisions in transatlantic relations of late, policy-makers in Washington and the European capitals seem to be edging towards accord on at least one issue: our present policies on Iran are not working.
Daniel Neep
At Last … Endgame in Sight in Iraq? In June 2004, in the run-up to the hand-over of power from the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG), for the first time there were audible military mutterings of the term ‘strategic failure’ to describe the apparent collapse of the original objectives of the US-led mission in Iraq.
Greg Mills
Russian President Putin Fires Chief of General Staff Anatoliy Kvashnin President Putin has fired Major-General Anatoliy Kvashnin, Chief of the General Staff, as part of sweeping changes to the top brass in the Russian military structures.
Roger N McDermott
The Gandhi Election Machine The Gandhi Election Machine India, Kashmir, Pakistan, Congress Party, Singh, nuclear.
Andrew Kennedy
US Presidential Elections: The Nuclear Question Missile defence, nuclear, WMD, US elections
Andrew Kennedy