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: Index 2007

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Monthly briefings on current issues in international defence and security and the military sciences.

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Index

The Need for British Trilateral Diplomacy: China, the EU and the Transatlantic Alliance In the UK, the European Union’s (EU) growing security ties with China receive relatively little attention. At the beginning of this year, however, China tested anti-satellite weaponry – a step that could, and from the British perspective should, provoke a sober consideration of the type of security relationship Europe should seek with the Chinese.
Tim Williams

US Military Overstretch: Fact or Fiction There are not enough troops to adequately provide for all of the commitments of the US Global War on Terror, nor is there enough funding to pay for more. Is the US military suffering from imperial overstretch?
Kate Clouston

Drugs and Instability in Afghanistan Foreign nations’ assistance to Afghanistan precludes military operations that could be mounted against poppygrowers, drug producers, laboratories, smugglers, and the tribal/ethnic leaders and illegal militias who direct and protect the drug chain. There is not only a lack of consensus as to what action to take on the drug problem, but also a desire to place responsibility for action on the Afghan authorities or indeed any "other" nations or groups of nations.
Brian Cloughley

The Long War and the Wide Gap: Transatlantic Perspectives of Terrorism The codification of the ‘Long War’ in the 2006 QDR means that although relations between Washington and its European allies have improved recently, in the long term the Long War paradigm does not support this trend.
Michael Williams

Libya: A Winter Warming The resolution of the case of the Bulgarian nurses opens up the next stage of normalization between Libya and the West. But where can relations between Libya and the West go now?
Jonathan Lindley

Northern Neocons or Business as Usual? Canada's Conservative Turn and Transatlantic Relations While some have attempted to portray Stephen Harper as the closest thing in Canada to an American neo-conservative such portrayals are poor attempts to distort the truth.
Mike Williams

Taiwan's New Presidency: A Golden Opportunity for Regional Stability The recent electoral victory for the Kuomintang has the potential to lead to a thaw in Sino-Taiwanese relations.
Dr Francis Yi-hua Kan

Hu Jintao: The Quiet Reformer or Party Puritan? As Hu Jintao launches his own brand of CCP party doctrine, we are not observing a reformer in the Western democratic sense, but a determined party man, resolute in his role of guiding the CCP through irreversible economic reforms.
Alex Neill

China's Energy Security: What is the Right Fuel Mix? What is good news for energy security may well be very bad news in terms of CO2 emissions and the environment.
Cornelia Meyer

China's Dangerous Energy Nexus Over energy security, the United States and China are starting to find themselves bound into a cycle of mutual distrust.

Burma Sells Gas to China Jobs for China and dollars for Burma’s generals, tentative gas sales, a pipeline plan and road building are bringing China and Burma closer together than ever.
David Fullbrook

Condoleezza Rice's Visit to Libya: The Final Step in Qaddafi's Diplomatic Rehabilitation? Libyan President Muammar Al-Qaddafi has transformed the international perception of his country in recent years. But Libya's rehabilitation may not quite be the model it first appears.
Hanna-Caroline Imig

Japan's Security Policy Rut Taro Aso is the new Japanese Prime Minister. But while no one doubts his ability, it is unlikely that he will be able to lift Japan out of the security rut it has found itself in for the last few years.
John Hemmings

Building an Air Manoeuvre Capability The Smart Acquisition Initiatives, proclaimed by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) with much fanfare in 1998, have not yet eliminated all difficulties in the acquisition process.
Prof. David Kirkpatrick

France at the Crossroads France's ruling elite have failed to evolve with the changing times and their inability to renew and reinvent themselves is the major issue facing the country today. France must break this stalemate.
Julien Artero

George Bush's Legacy in Africa: Hail to the Chief? An examination of George Bush's record on the African continent
Knox Chitiyo

Papering Over the Cracks? An Analysis of the New French Defence and National Security White Paper This article outlines the main areas of the most recent French Defence and National Security White Paper, and provides an analysis of the implications on France's foreign policy aspirations
Alastair Cameron

The Fall of the Shevardnadze Government in Georgia: Revolution or Regime Change? The ousting from power of President Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia on 23 November could prove to be a key moment in the political and economic development of the troubled Caucasian republic.
Stephen Blackwell

Boom or Bust? European Military Spending in NATO This article investigates the ability of Europe's militaries to meet the challenges of a changing world
Matthew Smith

Sino-American Relations and the New American President Despite all that has changed in the US after 9/11 and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the most important bilateral relationship which the US needs to nurture is with China.
Lloyd Thrall

USAID in Afghanistan This article examines the role and success of USAID projects in Afghanistan. The international community must recognize that without a unified approach, progress will be marginalized.
Kate Clouston

Activity in South Asia The past year has seen many developments in the India-Pakistan relationship as the two sides have progressed from the nadir of last summer when the two sides came to the brink of conflict.
Andrew Kennedy

Is Space Weaponisation Inevitable? Recently, reports of the destruction of ageing satellites by the missiles of large powers have been frequent. This article analyses whether these events are the prefigure the weaponisation of space.
Bharath Gopalaswamy

Venezuela Puts Power in Reserve By promoting General Gustavo Rangel Briceño from the position of Commander of the Reserves to Defence Minister, Hugo Chavez underlined the centrality of the reserves to his defence planning.
Mark Joyce

The East Asia Summit and Energy Security The Cebu Declaration aims to address key issues affecting East Asian energy security. An important step, but more remains to be done.
Pablo Bustelo

Is NATO up to the Task in Afghanistan? Counter-insurgency campaigns are won not by body counts, but by the absence of killing and satisfying citizens’ hopes.
Greg Mills and Terence McNamee

Poland and Iraq Poland has successfully taken advantage of the Iraq crisis and learnt a lesson in pragmatic international relations.
Lukasz Nalaskowski & Aaron P. Dunne

The Obama Revolution Barack Obama’s campaign shook up American politics; this article questions whether his presidency will have a similar effect on international affairs. It lays out the likely immediate changes which will be seen in US foreign policy and outlines the possible stance his administration will take on other pressing concerns.
Lisa Aronsson

Chinese Involvement in Africa: A Threat to the Good Governance Agenda? China's increasing involvement in Africa poses questions for the success of the Good Governance Agenda. This article outlines the effects China's engagement with Africa may have on Western projects there.
Lawrence Devlin

Iran’s Domestic Crisis: A Chance for a Deal over Iraq? The US and Iran are scheduled to meet in Baghdad to discuss various issues affecting both states. Internally however, the Iranian regime rests on weaker foundations.
Christopher Pang

The Wavering US-ROK Alliance Changes in America's Korea strategy have rocked bilateral relations with the Republic of Korea, and highlighted some uncomfortable truths.
Victoria Shin

After Admitting Failure on Iran, Will Europe Take the Gloves Off? A leaked EU report recognises that diplomatic efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons programme have failed. Member states must decide whether they can accept a nuclear Iran, and what can be done to stop its programme.
Tim Williams

Defence Technology Strategy Strengthens the Case for Closer Co-operation with Europe The UK Government's Defence Technology Strategy contains evidence of a gradual shift of emphasis away from the United States (US) towards Europe in the defence R&D field.
Mark Joyce

A Return to Geopolitics? NATO in Asia If NATO relations are pursued sloppily, what may result is not a better network for the Alliance to draw upon for risk-management operations, but a new superpower conflict between ideologically dissimilar factions.
Michael Williams

Changing Faces, Changing Places: Realignment and Reassessment in the European Defence Market The latest round of defence industry realignment probably holds more pluses than minuses for Britain, but BAE Systems will probably find re-entry to the European market a more difficult process than its steady departure has proven to be.
Tim Williams

Improvement in Defence Acquisition? One Cheer for MoD While any cost reductions on projects in Demonstration and Manufacturing phases appear favourable, it remains unclear how some of these 2005 in-year cost reductions have been achieved.
David Kirkpatrick

Britain's Nuclear Deterrent – Keeping the Options Open Nuclear capability for the UK has more to do with international status and influence than with direct security.
Michael Codner

Afghan Opium: A Case of Uncontrollable Supply While there is demand, supplies will emerge to meet it.
Cindy Fazey

Cui Bono – Today’s Lebanon and Tomorrow’s Syria? Although the murder of Lebanon's ex-Prime Minister, Rafiq Hariri, was claimed to be a watershed, it represents no such thing – neither in the act, nor in its effects.
Turi Munthe

Everybody Needs Good Neighbours: Iraqi Foreign Policy After the Elections Present developments between Iraq and its neighbours are effectively laying down the foreign policy foundations for the post-election government
Daniel Neep

Defence Acquisition in Crisis The year 2004 has marked one of the periodic peaks of public interest in the arcane process of defence equipment acquisition by the Ministry of Defence (MoD).
David Kirkpatrick

Making Friends and Threatening People There seems to be a curious mixture of pride and anger that the US is on the one hand treating Iran as a pariah state and on the other begging for its help.
Daniel Neep

Pakistan’s Relations with the US: Risks and Opportunities A recent air attack by US-led forces which killed eleven Pakistani soldiers is only one incident in a rocky relationship, which has had its ups and downs since Pakistan’s independence.
Noshad Khan

The End of Abe Fears that Japan will again play a militaristic and negative role in world affairs are misplaced and outdated. Modern Japan is deeply imbibed with democratic and human rights values.
John Hemmings

Potential Water Conflicts in the Middle East The Middle East is one of the most water-poor regions in the world. This article surveys the challenges for states in the years to come.
Dr Nimrod Raphaeli

Transformational Diplomacy: The Conceptual Repackaging of US Foreign Policy Although American officials now speak of US foreign policy in terms of transformational diplomacy, in fact it is actually a conceptual repackaging of the same foreign policy goals.
Kate Clouston

Security in Afghanistan: More Than a Job for NATO While the reconstruction of Afghanistan remains achievable, NATO and the international community must better coordinate their efforts, or risk strategic failure.
Michael Williams

The US, the UK and Sub-Saharan Africa: Evaluating Past and Re-thinking Future Policies Following the defeat of Republicans in the US Congress, US foreign policy on Africa will remain relatively static until after 2008.
Knox Chitiyo

Iran: Internal Indecision Continues Iran's competing power groups can offer restraint and caution that is not present in areas of President Ahmadinejad’s direct control
Jonathan Lindley

Africa and the Value of International Summitry The development plight of Africa’s people is too important to become a tool for political evangelism or to be left up to summits.
Greg Mills

American Base Closures in Europe: Stalled, but Inevitable Will the Pentagon’s troop realignment plans actually improve the military’s ability to respond in a timely and effective manner when called into action?
Mark Joyce

Transformation Under Fire When Donald Rumsfeld came to the Pentagon four years ago, he took on the challenge to implement an agenda near to his heart: military transformation.
Peter Spiegel

Cyber Tiger, Hidden Dragon The temperature in cyberspace shot up over the summer months when a number of newspapers in Europe ran stories alleging sustained cyber-operations levelled against several national government computer networks.
Alex Neill

Pressure Point Warfare: China Swings the Assassin's Mace In the wake of China’s successful anti-satellite test in January 2007, observers are scrambling to interpret the signals. The unveiling of such weapons suggests a policy of ‘pressure-point warfare’.
Alexander Neill

Nordic-Baltic Challenges and the New Swedish Government Will the new Government be a more active player in the European Union's European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP)?
Bo Ljung

Playing the Energy Game: Pipeline Politics in Russia's Backyard The Caspian region has become a battleground for foreign investors in an age where new sources of supply are short and energy consumption is on the rise.
Tammy Farrenkopf

In Arms We Trust: US ‘Post-Iraq Strategy’ in the Making? On 29 July 2007, the Bush Administration announced plans to provide an estimated $63 billion worth of advanced weaponry to several of its key allies in the Middle East.
Christopher Pang

Divided Unions: The Allies' Split over Iraq Troop Withdrawals The White House’s objectives in Iraq are increasingly divergent from those of its allies, domestically and internationally. As a hostile Congress attacks in Washington, the ‘coalition of the willing’ begins to dwindle.
Kate Clouston

The US–India Nuclear Deal America needs a strong India to broaden the world economy, guard a troubled corner, and counter China.
David Fullbrook

The Barcelona Process Ten Years On The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership remains an important and productive element of European Middle Eastern policy, but one that carries an air of unfulfilled potential.
Jonathan Lindley

US China Policy: Trouble Hedging out East The United States will continue to implement a China policy that is run on the twin tracks of economic engagement and strategic containment.
Justin Hempson-Jones

The Chinese-Japanese Spat: Failing to Reconcile Old Enemies What is at stake is not just the future composition of the UN Security Council, but the stability of the entire Asian continent.
Jonathan Eyal

The Russian Navy: A Blue-water Revival? Towards the end of his eight year reign as president, Vladimir Putin seemed increasingly determined to restore Russia’s status as a major global power. But the revival of Russia's Navy may not be as extensive as first thought.
Richard Winstanley

South Korean Security Policy Under a New Banner Assessing the changes and developments in South Korean security policy, after the election of Lee Myungbak and the GNP
John Hemmings

Resource Civil Wars This article argues that global warming and environmental destruction will lead to international realignments that could have serious domestic repercussions within those states that make them.
Roger Howard

A $10 billion Statement: Indian Aircraft Procurement and Foreign Policy Historically, and in the case of India, the ‘political’ aspect of military hardware acquisition has played a deterministic role in choosing suppliers.
Rudra Chaudhuri

Australia's Strategic Dilemmas The next Australian government will face some tough dilemmas in international policy, especially in defence and security.
Rory Medcalf

Soviet Lessons for NATO in Afghanistan Does the Soviet experience have any relevance for the international forces in the country today?
Greg Mills and Martin Edmonds

The Effect of Pandemic Flu on Business The economic penalties to national budgets and commercial enterprises, never mind the human losses, should override any reticence to plan and prepare for what is likely to be the most disruptive event in the past century.
Robert Hall

Zimbabwe's Chronic Condition Just as it seems impossible for things in Zimbabwe to get worse, they do.
Greg Mills

The Sea Base and American Expeditionary Transformation The concept behind the sea base represents a fundamental shift in the focus of American naval strategy from the ocean to land.
Jia Xu

Taiwan: Yet Another Close Election With such a large proportion of global maritime trade passing through the waterways in the vicinity of Singapore it is natural that the city state should be at the forefront of efforts to mitigate the increasing threat to seaborne trade
Andrew Kennedy

Dramatic change in the leadership of Indonesia The presidential runoff on 20 September 2004, between Megawati Sukarno Putri and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), marked another watershed on Indonesia’s road to full democracy.
Ivar Hellberg

Russia’s New Great Game in Oil-Rich States Employing strategies redolent of a new Great Game, Russia has stepped up its diplomatic and trade activities in the Middle East and North Africa.
Tamsin Carlisle

Assessing the Modernization of Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces and its Implications for Regional Security Azerbaijani military modernization may have mixed effects for regional security. While vital energy infrastructure will be safer, tensions may increase with Armenia and seeking NATO membership will draw in Russian concerns.
James Bosbotinis

Resetting the Political Clock: Thai Junta Guarantees New Era of Instability Few in the international community demonstrated concern about Thailand as it marked the year anniversary of its latest coup d’etat on 19 September.
Andrew Legon

Small Arms and its Implications for US Security Policy The United States has in recent weeks been strongly criticized by its southern neighbours for exacerbating violence in the region through a failure to impose more restrictive firearms legislation.
Mark Joyce

An Eastern Thaw A warm diplomatic wind blew through Tokyo when the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao made a State visit to the Japanese capital in April this year.
John Hemmings

The Maldives: Liberal Democracy or a Jihadist Entrepôt? The Maldives approaches a critical juncture in its development. Will it become a stable liberal democracy, or a security risk?
Paul Moorcroft

Koizumi’s Legacy Come September, Koizumi, one of the longest governing Japanese Prime Ministers, will step down. What legacy does he leave for his successor?
Donald Dingwall

China's Weapons Ban The EU’s ban on weapons exports to China has become anachronistic in only one sense: Europe’s economic interests are no longer in accord with its operation.
Sheng-ren Liu

Pirates of the South Pacific Piracy clearly remains a serious problem today despite the general impression that it faded away along with the age of sail. South East Asia provides an ideal location for maritime piracy for a number of reasons.
Donald Dingwall

Around and About Westminster: Demob Unhappy Humphry Crum Ewing

Around and About Westminster: Save our regiment’ is the cry The plans to restructure the infantry, reducing the number of battalions and involving the abolition of four regiments, has triggered interventions in Parliament from many MPs right across the House who do not usually participate on defence issues more br
Humphry Crum Ewing

Beijing Worries About Energy: China Moves to Secure Supplies China’s remarkable economic growth during the past quarter-century has surpassed its ability to fuel its economy and has been forced for the past decade to import a steadily increasing percentage of its energy.
Bernard D. Cole

Defence Procurement – A Risky Business Sir Peter makes a point about his organization, that while the Defence Procurement Agency (DPA) has not achieved its targets, things are getting better, not worse.
Ellie Goldsworthy