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: Index 2007

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Monthly briefings on current issues in international defence and security and the military sciences.

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Index

The New Iraqi Army: Not Fit For Purpose Iraq’s armed forces will be incapable of deterring a potential adversary without a permanent commitment of Coalition forces.
Jeff Michaels

Shrapnel Country: An Alternative View of the 2007 Somali Intervention The multinational (that is, Ethiopian and US) intervention in Somalia has attracted a great deal of comment and criticism. However, despite its flaws, this intervention may yet have a positive impact. The current Somali experiment in power-sharing might just work.
Tapera Knox Chitiyo

Libya: A Winter Warming The resolution of the case of the Bulgarian nurses opens up the next stage of normalization between Libya and the West. But where can relations between Libya and the West go now?
Jonathan Lindley

South Africa's President Motlanthe: All Change, or Business as Usual Few mourn the passing of Thabo Mbeki from the South African presidency. The manner and timing of his dismissal, however, have raised questions about what will happen under the new president.
Knox Chitiyo

Japan's Security Policy Rut Taro Aso is the new Japanese Prime Minister. But while no one doubts his ability, it is unlikely that he will be able to lift Japan out of the security rut it has found itself in for the last few years.
John Hemmings

Commanding Southern Lebanon The current crisis in the Middle East appears set to draw in an international intervention force. But the generation and deployment of the force is likely to be a complex and lengthy process.
Tim Williams

France at the Crossroads France's ruling elite have failed to evolve with the changing times and their inability to renew and reinvent themselves is the major issue facing the country today. France must break this stalemate.
Julien Artero

More Than Meets the Eye: Iraq's 'Reconciliation Plan' Everyone agrees that a stable Iraq ultimately relies on a national reconciliation process. So why has the Iraqi premier's reconciliation plan been met with such a feeble response?
Tom Hill

Japan's Self Defence Conundrum: National Defence Programme Guidelines A growing movement proclaims Japan's security posture should now be 'normalized' to allow force deployment in a combat role. What are the future possibilities then for Japanese military activities beyond domestic territories?
Alexander Neill

Patriotic Blackness: Africa and the Crisis in Zimbabwe The concept of 'patriotic blackness' is crucial to any understanding of Africa's stance towards Robert Mugabe's regime.
Knox Chitiyo

The Obama Revolution Barack Obama’s campaign shook up American politics; this article questions whether his presidency will have a similar effect on international affairs. It lays out the likely immediate changes which will be seen in US foreign policy and outlines the possible stance his administration will take on other pressing concerns.
Lisa Aronsson

Chinese Involvement in Africa: A Threat to the Good Governance Agenda? China's increasing involvement in Africa poses questions for the success of the Good Governance Agenda. This article outlines the effects China's engagement with Africa may have on Western projects there.
Lawrence Devlin

Nuclear North Korea This article examines whether North Korea now poses any less of a menacing threat to its neighbours and if full denuclearization can be achieved.
Victoria Shin

A Return to Geopolitics? NATO in Asia If NATO relations are pursued sloppily, what may result is not a better network for the Alliance to draw upon for risk-management operations, but a new superpower conflict between ideologically dissimilar factions.
Michael Williams

Pakistan’s Relations with the US: Risks and Opportunities A recent air attack by US-led forces which killed eleven Pakistani soldiers is only one incident in a rocky relationship, which has had its ups and downs since Pakistan’s independence.
Noshad Khan

The End of Abe Fears that Japan will again play a militaristic and negative role in world affairs are misplaced and outdated. Modern Japan is deeply imbibed with democratic and human rights values.
John Hemmings

The US, the UK and Sub-Saharan Africa: Evaluating Past and Re-thinking Future Policies Following the defeat of Republicans in the US Congress, US foreign policy on Africa will remain relatively static until after 2008.
Knox Chitiyo

The Second "Hundred Years' War"? It might just be that the interventions of the 1990’s, ‘Blair’s Wars’ and the ‘War on Terror’, will find their places in history as the beginnings of a Second Hundred Years’ War.
By Amyas Godfrey

Iran: Internal Indecision Continues Iran's competing power groups can offer restraint and caution that is not present in areas of President Ahmadinejad’s direct control
Jonathan Lindley

Washington and the Eurocrisis If Europe turning inward is dangerous for Washington, Europe’s leadership lashing outward to reassert damaged individual and collective influence also poses risks.
Phillip Cornell

A Glimpse of Clarity in China’s Military Modernisation The annual Pentagon report is now an integral part of the ‘China threat’ debate and has evolved to become both the comprehensive lexicon of the Chinese military order of battle and a benchmark for the analysis of the PLA.
Alexander Neill

Zimbabwe: A Gathering of Discontents More than a month after the ‘harmonised’ elections in Zimbabwe, the political process remains mired in controversy. International pressure to announce results of the presidential vote has been ignored in favour of a state managed ‘recount’.
Knox Chitiyo

Sudan's Crisis: Going Global War in Sudan is never straightforward. Multiple and interlocking internal conflicts have drawn in myriad international actors and 'globalized' the violence.
Knox Chitiyo

Pressure Point Warfare: China Swings the Assassin's Mace In the wake of China’s successful anti-satellite test in January 2007, observers are scrambling to interpret the signals. The unveiling of such weapons suggests a policy of ‘pressure-point warfare’.
Alexander Neill

The UK Terrorism Threat in Context While the current threat to the UK may have the appearance of being a new phenomenon, the effective ‘infrastructure’ has existed here for many years
Gary Himdle

Democracy in the Middle East: Handle with Care If Islamism is the democratic choice in the Middle East, it must be greeted with the same respect afforded all other democracies, and treated as equally legitimate.
Turi Munthe

The Iran–Al Qa’ida Link Despite the implausibility of the idea, there are a number of concrete sources and arguments that connect the regime with the terrorist organization
Jalil Roshandel and Sharon Chadha

Zimbabwe: Waiting to Exhale? Does the eleventh-hour deal between ZANU-PF and the MDC herald a new era for Zimbabwe?
Knox Chitiyo

In Arms We Trust: US ‘Post-Iraq Strategy’ in the Making? On 29 July 2007, the Bush Administration announced plans to provide an estimated $63 billion worth of advanced weaponry to several of its key allies in the Middle East.
Christopher Pang

The Barcelona Process Ten Years On The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership remains an important and productive element of European Middle Eastern policy, but one that carries an air of unfulfilled potential.
Jonathan Lindley

US China Policy: Trouble Hedging out East The United States will continue to implement a China policy that is run on the twin tracks of economic engagement and strategic containment.
Justin Hempson-Jones

The Russian Navy: A Blue-water Revival? Towards the end of his eight year reign as president, Vladimir Putin seemed increasingly determined to restore Russia’s status as a major global power. But the revival of Russia's Navy may not be as extensive as first thought.
Richard Winstanley

Resource Civil Wars This article argues that global warming and environmental destruction will lead to international realignments that could have serious domestic repercussions within those states that make them.
Roger Howard

The Cross Strait Status Quo: Troubled Waters Ahead The onset of the new political cycle in Taiwan coincided with the first anniversary of the adoption by China of its Anti-Secession Law.
Alex Neill

Zimbabwe's Chronic Condition Just as it seems impossible for things in Zimbabwe to get worse, they do.
Greg Mills

MDC: Age Old Concept, Brand New Label Multinational Defence Cooperation, Ministry of Defence, MOD, NATO
Edward Foster

Japan - Strategic Developments, Fuel and Alliances While Japan is experiencing political paralysis, the political debate and news coverage focuses largely on the daily political minutiae and not the broader strategic political issues at hand.
Nils G.Bildt

An Eastern Thaw A warm diplomatic wind blew through Tokyo when the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao made a State visit to the Japanese capital in April this year.
John Hemmings

The Maldives: Liberal Democracy or a Jihadist Entrepôt? The Maldives approaches a critical juncture in its development. Will it become a stable liberal democracy, or a security risk?
Paul Moorcroft

Koizumi’s Legacy Come September, Koizumi, one of the longest governing Japanese Prime Ministers, will step down. What legacy does he leave for his successor?
Donald Dingwall

Ceasefire in Nepal: Threat or Opportunity? There has been an increase in feeling within Nepal that the king has become an impediment to democracy.
Justin Hempson-Jones

Around and About Westminster: A Period of 'Wait and See' Humphry Crum Ewing

Around and About Westminster: Business Resumes – With Some Changes Humphry Crum Ewing

Pirates of the South Pacific Piracy clearly remains a serious problem today despite the general impression that it faded away along with the age of sail. South East Asia provides an ideal location for maritime piracy for a number of reasons.
Donald Dingwall

Around and About Westminster: Demob Unhappy Humphry Crum Ewing

At Last … Endgame in Sight in Iraq? In June 2004, in the run-up to the hand-over of power from the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG), for the first time there were audible military mutterings of the term ‘strategic failure’ to describe the apparent collapse of the original objectives of the US-led mission in Iraq.
Greg Mills

Security in Southern Lebanon and the Future of Hizbollah Following the hasty withdrawal of Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) from its so-called security zone in southern Lebanon at the end of May 2000, the security situation along the Israeli-Lebanese border has been surprisingly calm despite the three month security vacuum without the full deployment of the Lebanese Army or UNIFIL.
Dr Magnus Ranstorp