Climate Change, Future Conflict and the Role of Climate Science
Dec 2005, Vol. 150, No. 6
By Stephan Harrison
There is now a general consensus amongst climate scientists that the Earth is undergoing significant warming, mainly as a result of human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases and landuse changes. The last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (IPCC TAR) was published in 2001, and showed that global mean surface temperatures had risen some 0.6° C since the beginning of the twentieth century.Whilst to many this temperature rise does not seem significant, palaeoclimatological studies suggest that this means that the Earth is warmer than it has been for at least the last 1,000 years and there is compelling evidence to suggest that the Earth is warmer now than it has been for 5,000 years. In addition, warming is occurring at a faster rate than for the last 10,000 years. The consequences of this temperature rise have been well-documented, but include rapid recession of mountain glaciers, rising sea levels, changing patterns and intensities of rainfall and drought events and latitudinal shifts in ecological systems. Whilst there is an enormous scientific literature on these issues, less has been written on the effects of climate change on the nature and triggers of future conflicts. Kirsch asks ‘Why are wars (including terrorist wars) so much more likely to occur in poor regions than in wealthy ones?’ The role of climate change in exacerbating poverty is now established and, in helping to explain some of the political and cultural instabilities of such countries, answers Kirsch’s question. In practical terms, little emphasis has been placed upon the potential role of climate scientists in helping the military to plan for such conflicts, or in helping to resolve them. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to outline some of the potential likely impacts of climate change on future conflict and to highlight the tools that climate scientists can bring to bear to inform military planners.
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By Stephan Harrison
There is now a general consensus amongst climate scientists that the Earth is undergoing significant warming, mainly as a result of human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases and landuse changes. The last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (IPCC TAR) was published in 2001, and showed that global mean surface temperatures had risen some 0.6° C since the beginning of the twentieth century.Whilst to many this temperature rise does not seem significant, palaeoclimatological studies suggest that this means that the Earth is warmer than it has been for at least the last 1,000 years and there is compelling evidence to suggest that the Earth is warmer now than it has been for 5,000 years. In addition, warming is occurring at a faster rate than for the last 10,000 years. The consequences of this temperature rise have been well-documented, but include rapid recession of mountain glaciers, rising sea levels, changing patterns and intensities of rainfall and drought events and latitudinal shifts in ecological systems. Whilst there is an enormous scientific literature on these issues, less has been written on the effects of climate change on the nature and triggers of future conflicts. Kirsch asks ‘Why are wars (including terrorist wars) so much more likely to occur in poor regions than in wealthy ones?’ The role of climate change in exacerbating poverty is now established and, in helping to explain some of the political and cultural instabilities of such countries, answers Kirsch’s question. In practical terms, little emphasis has been placed upon the potential role of climate scientists in helping the military to plan for such conflicts, or in helping to resolve them. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to outline some of the potential likely impacts of climate change on future conflict and to highlight the tools that climate scientists can bring to bear to inform military planners.
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