Is Missile Defence Destabilizing for South Asia?
Oct 2005, Vol. 150, No. 5
By Probal Ghosh
The introduction of ballistic missile defence components in South Asia would destabilize the prevailing nuclear equilibrium between neighbours India and Pakistan and lead to an ‘all out’ arms race. This is the current view of most experts on the region – but it is flawed. The current dynamics of South Asia suggest just the opposite: there is a doctrinal necessity for India to possess such systems given the likely response strategies Pakistan would adopt. In the post-9/11 era, the determination and tenacity of the Bush Administration to deploy a missile defence system in the form of a rudimentary ground-based midcourse defence system has been reinforced by their attempt to get the system operational by October 2004. The impetus for this move came from a security-obsessed nation deeply scarred by the World Trade Center attacks. Presently, the attempt is to build a foolproof, secure Fortress CONUS (Continent of United States) – a practical impossibility. It is debatable whether the robust security and threshold deadlines can be achieved given the associated technological challenges. However, the atmospherics towards such an achievement have been made more conducive than at anytime previously.
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By Probal Ghosh
The introduction of ballistic missile defence components in South Asia would destabilize the prevailing nuclear equilibrium between neighbours India and Pakistan and lead to an ‘all out’ arms race. This is the current view of most experts on the region – but it is flawed. The current dynamics of South Asia suggest just the opposite: there is a doctrinal necessity for India to possess such systems given the likely response strategies Pakistan would adopt. In the post-9/11 era, the determination and tenacity of the Bush Administration to deploy a missile defence system in the form of a rudimentary ground-based midcourse defence system has been reinforced by their attempt to get the system operational by October 2004. The impetus for this move came from a security-obsessed nation deeply scarred by the World Trade Center attacks. Presently, the attempt is to build a foolproof, secure Fortress CONUS (Continent of United States) – a practical impossibility. It is debatable whether the robust security and threshold deadlines can be achieved given the associated technological challenges. However, the atmospherics towards such an achievement have been made more conducive than at anytime previously.
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