Climate Change and Regional Security: Assessing the Scientific Uncertainties
Jun 2008, Vol. 153, No. 3
By Stephan Harrison
There is now scientific consensus that the mean surface temperature of the Earth has warmed in recent decades, and that the warming amounts to around 0.8°C since the beginning of the twentieth century. From this, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies estimate that 2005 was the warmest year since reliable instrumental measurements become available. Attribution studies show that there is high probability (at least 90 per cent) that this warming is largely the result of
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide) in the troposphere and that the amount and rate of warming are outside of the range
of natural variation and unprecedented for the Holocene (the last 11,000 years).
Continued warming is expected to have important consequences for a range of
Earth systems.
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By Stephan Harrison
There is now scientific consensus that the mean surface temperature of the Earth has warmed in recent decades, and that the warming amounts to around 0.8°C since the beginning of the twentieth century. From this, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies estimate that 2005 was the warmest year since reliable instrumental measurements become available. Attribution studies show that there is high probability (at least 90 per cent) that this warming is largely the result of
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide) in the troposphere and that the amount and rate of warming are outside of the range
of natural variation and unprecedented for the Holocene (the last 11,000 years).
Continued warming is expected to have important consequences for a range of
Earth systems.
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