Brother in Arms: Transitioning from One Castro to Another in Cuba
Oct 2007, Vol. 152, No. 5
By Mark Joyce
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In a one-party socialist republic that has been ruled by an international revolutionary icon for forty-eight years, it is inevitable that discussion of post-
Fidel Cuba will focus on personalities, in particular on the President’s brother and designated successor. When Fidel eventually dies, however, Raúl’s authority will depend less on fraternal endorsement than on the institutions he controls. One institution in particular – the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias: FAR) – will be crucial to guaranteeing stability on the island in the short term. In the medium term, the FAR could be one of the principal drivers of reform and a key interlocutor for foreign governments and businesses seeking to shape the future development of Cuba.
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By Mark Joyce
Download article
In a one-party socialist republic that has been ruled by an international revolutionary icon for forty-eight years, it is inevitable that discussion of post-
Fidel Cuba will focus on personalities, in particular on the President’s brother and designated successor. When Fidel eventually dies, however, Raúl’s authority will depend less on fraternal endorsement than on the institutions he controls. One institution in particular – the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias: FAR) – will be crucial to guaranteeing stability on the island in the short term. In the medium term, the FAR could be one of the principal drivers of reform and a key interlocutor for foreign governments and businesses seeking to shape the future development of Cuba.
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