The Real Strategic Environment: A Call for Long-Term Thinking on UK Defence Investment
Oct 2007, Vol. 152, No. 5
By Steven Haines
It is a truism that the basis for long-term defence planning is a potentially unsound assessment of the nature of future security, the threats to it and what will be required in the way of equipment and trained personnel to combat those threats. There can be no certainty in this respect. History has demonstrated that if decisions are correct, it is probably down to a good dose of luck supported by what can at best be described as good judgement.
It is also a truism that, given the cost of the future defence programme, those charged with providing the substantial investment necessary to support it require a convincing argument that such investment is necessary. Treasury officials and the political leaders for whom they work need convincing arguments that the levels of investment required are fully justified relative to the other demands on the Exchequer. These two truisms present a fundamental dilemma. The Government needs to be resasonably confident that its investment will be sound and yet it has no way of knowing at the point of decision whether it is or not.
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By Steven Haines
It is a truism that the basis for long-term defence planning is a potentially unsound assessment of the nature of future security, the threats to it and what will be required in the way of equipment and trained personnel to combat those threats. There can be no certainty in this respect. History has demonstrated that if decisions are correct, it is probably down to a good dose of luck supported by what can at best be described as good judgement.
It is also a truism that, given the cost of the future defence programme, those charged with providing the substantial investment necessary to support it require a convincing argument that such investment is necessary. Treasury officials and the political leaders for whom they work need convincing arguments that the levels of investment required are fully justified relative to the other demands on the Exchequer. These two truisms present a fundamental dilemma. The Government needs to be resasonably confident that its investment will be sound and yet it has no way of knowing at the point of decision whether it is or not.
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