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Pakistan, the war on terror and strains with Western allies

General (Retd) Ehsan Ul Haq was Pakistan’s former Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff and a former director of the Inter-Service Intelligence, the country's principal intelligence body.

The following is an unedited transcript of a presentation given to RUSI's conference, 'Pakistan, the war on terror and strains with Western allies'. The views expressed here does not reflect those of the Insitute.

It is a privilege to have an opportunity to share my thoughts on the situation in Afghanistan and in our border regions and the strains that it has caused in Pakistan–US relations.

As you are well aware, Pakistan has been in the frontline against the scourge of terrorism. When Afghanistan became the last frontier of the cold war, Pakistan and the international community stood together to struggle against the occupation of Afghanistan. Whereas the free world benefitted, from this struggle, it was Afghanistan and Pakistan which paid, and in fact continue to pay the price.

No country has suffered more on account of the strife in Afghanistan than Pakistan. Extremism and terrorism (including the problems of drugs, the ‘Kalashnikov Culture’ and one of the largest refugee problem in the world) are a blowback from the unfortunate, developments in Afghanistan of the last thirty-five years. The infra-structure that is seen to spawn terrorism today was created to struggle against the occupation of Afghanistan. Thousands of youth from the Arab World and Islamic Communities around the world were concentrated for the struggle. A mushroom growth of madrassas was funded and Jihadi fervour promoted in the Pakistan Afghanistan border regions to support the Jihad. This was to provide the base of creation of Al-Qa’ida and the Taliban. The US, the UK and other powers, who had not only supported but actively implemented this struggle abandoned Afghanistan and Pakistan after the Soviet withdrawal and refused to accept any responsibility for stabilising the situation, with dire consequences haunting the world today.

Over the last seven years, Pakistan has borne the main brunt of Al-Qa’ida affiliated terrorism. Besides terrorist acts at public places that caused immense suffering and heavy losses of human lives, our national leadership, security forces and the intelligence services have been repeatedly targeted to undermine our resolve and stability. Already the number of casualties suffered have exceeded twice the number that were caused on 9/11. The most serious fall-out has been the overflow of the turbulence across the Pakistan – Afghan border and consequent destabilisation of the sensitive border region including the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and our two western provinces of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Baluchistan.

Extremism and terrorism is a complicated phenomenon and warrants a holistic approach to evolve a compatible response. As a part of a comprehensive multi – pronged strategy, Pakistan has displayed a strong resolve particularly by undertaking major military operations against the militants in FATA and parts of the NWFP. These operations were in three distinct phases, gradually increasing from employment of blocking forces on the border, after the dismantling of Taliban regime in Kabul, to a phase of selective engagement of militant locations in FATA during 2003-05 to large scale operations in 2005-08. Even now, major operations are underway in Swat, Bajuar and the Darra Adam Khel areas. In all Pakistan Army is employing almost 120,000 troops in operations to stabilize these regions and prevent movement across the Pak–Afghan border.

Pakistan has vociferously and repeatedly expressed its desire to see peace and stability in Afghanistan. Its aspirations for security and prosperity in Pakistan depend on a peaceful Afghanistan with a stable government. Towards this objective, it has made every endeavour to seek accommodation with the Afghan government, welcomed and extended support to NATO and ISAF. However Afghanistan presents a complex challenge to Pakistan and to the world at large.

It needs to be appreciated that the problems of Afghanistan lie inside Afghanistan. The situation in FATA and other border areas of Pakistan are not the cause but the effect of the protracted and intensifying strife in Afghanistan. The total area of FATA is 1/20 the size of Afghanistan and the density of security forces there is 30 to 40 times that of Afghanistan. While the presence of Al-Qa’ida and Taliban elements in FATA and their cross border movement cannot be denied, we must also accept that there are vast spaces in Afghanistan where there is no presence and writ of the government. These provide more convenient sanctuaries.

A very important factor in Pakistan’s inability to stabilize the western border and integrate FATA has been the rather negative role of successive Afghan governments, including the present one. You would recall the irredentist claims to Pakistan territories and non-acceptance of this recognized international border, including our sincere and determined efforts to seal/secure this border and regulate cross-border movements in accordance with accepted international procedures. Similarly Afghan government’s refusals to adhere to the timetable for repatriation of the Afghan refugees and cooperate in controlling the villages that have sprouted across the border over the last two decades also complicate the security situation.

While blaming Pakistan for the cross-border movement, it must be realized that security of the border is a joint responsibility. While there are over a 1000 posts established on Pakistan’s side, there are less than a 100 posts on the Afghan side of the border. Moreover, the cross border movement is a two way street. While movement from Pakistan’s side is often blamed on Pakistani failure or connivance, there is no mention of the returning terrorists, who sometime are even carrying their dead and wounded. There is also increasing scepticism in Pakistan about the obvious attempts to ignore the infiltration from Afghanistan into the tribal areas to cause instability in NWFP and Baluchistan in connivance with the Indian Intelligence Service, RAW.

Ladies and Gentlemen – there is increasing concern about the resurgence of the anti – coalition forces in Afghanistan. Most alarming has been the qualitative change in the pattern of violence. Instead of asymmetrical warfare of 2007, the insurgents have resorted to audacious concentration of forces against hardened targets, including the attacks on the Serena Hotel, the National Day Parade, Kandahar Jail, Kunar Outpost and the French Recce Patral. This is also reflected in the number of US and NATO casualties. Insurgency has extended to the Western Provinces and have seriously eroded the writ of the government even around Kabul. In fact, for the first time, failure is being accepted as an option.

However an even greater concern than the resurgence of the Taleban is the failure of the Karzai government over the last 7 years, to extend its base of political support, provide a modicum of governance, or impact Afghanistan’s slide into a narco-state. On the eve of the 2009 elections, the dispensation in Kabul continues to be based on the Tajik dominated Northern Alliance pitched against a coalition of Pukhtun tribes. In fact the situation has worsened as most prominent leaders of the Northern Alliance have fallen back on to their regional sponsors and formed the opposition. As Gen Petraeus has rightly concluded about the situation in Iraq that their can be no military solution and only a stable political government can muster the resolve and support for effective Counter-Insurgency Strategy. This is equally applicable in Afghanistan. The absence of an effective political strategy and ignoring the demographic realities do not augur well for stability of Afghanistan and compels over reliance on an increasingly unpopular security – centric approach with diminishing effects.

President’s Karzai tirades against Pakistan and his threats to invade FATA has to be viewed in this perspective. Unfortunately, while blaming Pakistan, Kabul tends to conveniently ignore that:-

a. Pakistan had been insisting on hardening and fencing the border and regulating the cross – border movement, which could not materialize due to Afghan intransigence.

b. Escalation of violence in FATA and NWFP, the thousands of lives lost due to terrorism and huge sacrifices of Pakistan security forces in counter terrorism operations.

c. Safe havens of Baluch insurgents in Afghanistan and infiltration of Uzbek fighters into FATA and NWFP.

A cause of serious concern in Pakistan has been the endorsement of Karzai’s threat by the US administration including President Bush. These concerns have been further accentuated by a series of developments over the last six months including:

a. The targeting of a Frontier Corps Post in Mohmand Agency in June 08.

b. Admiral Mullen’s statement that the US is forging a new strategy for Afghanistan and that it will continue strikes on safe havens in Pakistan.

c. US, joining India and Afghanistan, accused the ISI of aiding the bombing of Indian Embassy in Kabul in Jul 08, without offering any cogent evidence or awaiting any investigation. Let me also recall that in 2002, the then Indian Defence Minister is on record having said that if anything happens to the Indian missions in Afghanistan, they would hold Pakistan responsible.

d. Escalation of US cross – border strikes in Pakistan including the most blatant air assault on a border village that killed 20 civilians. None of the casualties was identified as an Al-Qaeda or a Taleban fighter.

e. An orchestrated campaign in the media and think tanks, through un-named people and without any evidence, accusing Pakistan of duplicity and supporting the Taleban even as they claim to fight them.

f. Under Secretary of State Boucher even demanded reforms in the ISI. All this while, I may add, the US Government, repeatedly appreciated Pakistan’s role as a staunch ally in the War on terror and re-iterating its respect for Pakistan’s Sovereignty.

Ladies and Gentlemen – Developments of the last few months, particularly the ground incursion in Waziristan, have sparked severe anti – American anger in Pakistan and brought strong popular pressure on the government to review its involvement in the so-called war on terror. There seems to have been a failure to realize the catastrophic consequences this policy would have on the stability of Pakistan and the region as well as the conduct of the so-called war on terror.

President Musharraf and the military government’s resolve against terrorism had been widely appreciated. However it had failed to develop a national consensus and galvanize popular support to back the policy. The transition, to full democracy was a critical opportunity to achieve it. Pakistan’s coalition government is fully supportive of the war on terror and has been trying to broaden support for its effort. A parliamentary debate is being initiated to develop a consensus on determined stance against terrorism. The government has also been working to dispel the popular perception that it is America’s War and that Pakistan has been unwillingly dragged into it. Undoubtedly, the US policy of coercion and unilateral intervention has seriously undermined these efforts of the government and its continuation will make it impossible to muster public support. As these negative developments were timed with the transition to democracy with an evolving civil military relationship, it was viewed as an attempt to take advantage of the fluid situation and even divide the civil military leadership which needs to be clarified.

The armed forces of Pakistan have been engaged in its largest and most decisive counter terrorism operations over the last one month in Bajaur and Swat. More Al-Qaeda and Taleban fighters haven been killed in these operations than any time in the past. Its success in these areas would have a significant impact on stabilizing the NWFP and northern districts of FATA. The US incursions in Waziristan may trigger reactions which would certainly divert resources from these operations. Thus undermining the overall objective intended to be achieved.

Ladies and Gentlemen – Despite the chequered history of their relationship, Pakistan and the US have been friends and allies for over five decades. Pakistan’s pivotal role in the war on terror since 9/11 and the security environment in the region underline the continuing significance of this relationship. Both sides must, therefore, urgently engage in a frank and constructive dialogue to address the irritants and strains.

Having completed its transition to democracy and being given a wake up call through the Marriot attack, Islamabad must firmly restate and implement its already declared policy not to permit its territories to be used for terrorist activities. The on-going operations in Bajaur indicate a more aggressive strategy by Pakistan’s armed forces which has evolved as a consequence of stronger political backing. It is, however, important to make these operations decisive and supplement them with an equally effective administrative and rehabilitation package to pre-empt a relapse and provide relief to the local population.

Pakistan has clearly stated that it doesn’t want strikes inside its territories which are entirely counter productive. There is unanimity in the pronouncement of the political and military leadership and strong national consensus on this issue. Persistence of these violations will seriously erode the credibility of the government and the armed forces. The US must respect Pakistan’s sovereignty to de-escalate the situation. An amicable resolution of this issue is critical for the future of Pakistan US relations.

Enhanced cooperation between Pakistan and the US is crucial to success in the struggle against terrorism and for the stability of Afghanistan as well as Pakistan. This is only possible if the legitimate security concerns and vital national interests of both sides are addressed. Undoubtedly the US has very high national security and geo-strategic stakes in Afghanistan. However it needs to be understand Pakistan’s sensitivities on internal stability, regional hegemony and national defence.

Fortunately, there are structures and forums available at the politico-strategic, operational and tactical levels for engagement, deliberations and resolving issues. There is an urgent need to activate and if required, upgrade them to overcome the trust deficit and obviate public posturing and media leakages.

To finalize the border region and eliminate un-governed spaces, the Pak-Afghan border must be defined and hardened despite Afghan objections.

Finally, the US and NATO must induct and deploy more forces into Afghanistan and accept their due share in securing the Pak-Afghan border. This we feel is a key factor. Pakistan cannot be asked to compensate for the inadequacy of boots on the ground in Afghanistan and unguarded borders.