The Ninth RUSI Missile Defence Conference

About the event:

With a NATO Summit in Bucharest scheduled for April 2008, official and industry studies will have been completed on the matter of how the US European Site, in Poland and the Czech Republic, colloquially known as the Third Site, can be accommodated by NATO.  This work essentially updates the MDFS (Missile Defence Feasibility Study) which took place before the Poland and Czech Republic issue became public.  The Bucharest Summit may establish a way ahead for NATO-wide missile defence.  These are fundamental strategic issues for Europe, particularly in the light of strong opposition to the European Site from Russia.  The recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iran has changed the terms of the debate, with missile defence proponents having to dig deeper to justify current policies and plans.

Speakers include:

• Lieutenant General Henry ‘Trey’ Obering III
  Director, United States Missile Defense Agency
• Ambassador Daniel Fried
  Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of European & Eurasian Affairs, United States Department of State
• Peter Flory
  Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment, NATO HQ
• Piotr Pacholski
  Director, Missile Defence Office, Ministry of National Defence, Poland
• David Hornback
  United States National Air & Space Intelligence Center
• Dr Veronika Kuchynova Smigolova
  Director of Security Policy Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Czech Republic 
• Nancy Morgan
  Chair, NATO Missile Defence Project Group
• Keith Englander
  Deputy for Engineering, United States Missile Defense Agency
• Professor Malcolm Chalmers
  Professorial Fellow, RUSI
• Rear Admiral Alan B. ‘Brad’ Hicks, USN
  Program Director, Aegis Ballistic Missile Defence, US Missile Defense Agency

In mid-2007, there was unhelpful talk of a return to the atmosphere of the Cold War, and although such talk has abated recently, the reactions of Russia, and corresponding concerns in parts of Europe, sustain a degree of tension.  Russia's newly assertive foreign policy stance is proving to be a real obstacle to agreement.  There are voices other than President Putin’s that oppose the US move to establish a Third Site, including many in the host countries themselves, where governments can be precarious.  Poland has a new government which has yet to establish a clear policy.

Although the issue is not currently prominent in the US Presidential Primaries, both parties have been largely supportive of Administration policy.  However, there are some who believe that a Democratic President would be less devoted to the European Site than the Bush Administration.  Will there be a “done deal” with Poland and the Czech Republic before the end of the year?  Congress is certainly not whole-heartedly in favour, as shown by the cut, albeit not a large one, in Third Site funding for the current year. 
 
Most European countries outside the candidate hosts have been relatively subdued in public during the last year, apparently waiting to see what comes of the Third Site plans, while no doubt contributing to the debate within the walls of NATO Headquarters.  This does not necessarily mean that there is strong opposition, but nor is there enthusiastic support.  Issues such as debris and command and control are important to Europeans.  There are many who believe that Europeans should be doing more on their own account; or that the mobility that can be provided by sea-based systems or movable ground-based systems such as THAAD (Theater High Altitude Missile Defense System) or KEI (Kinetic Energy Interceptor) or longer term indigenous developments might be better for Europe than interceptor missiles in silos. 
 
Meanwhile, major strides are being made in several of the, mainly US, ballistic missile defence (BMD) development programmes.  Notable are the continued success of the Aegis BMD system, recent Japanese tests, an apparently 100% success rate in the THAAD flight test programme, and steady technical progress on the AirBorne Laser (ABL).  The big ticket GMD (Ground-based Midcourse Defense) system has had successes, but the expensive test flights are infrequent.
 
This conference will examine these issues, from policy through programmes to speculation.  Room will be found for government and industry views as well as independent commentary.  Last year we spoke about Europe being at a turning point in the road on BMD; a year later we are still waiting to commit down that route.

For further information and to discuss sponsorship opportunities, please contact Avnish Patel, +44 (0) 20 7747 2626.