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The Afghan Papers
Committing Britain to War in Helmand, 2005-06Ten years after British troops entered Afghanistan, a new book dissects the strategic decisions that took the UK to war in Helmand.
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Commentary
The Nuclear Agenda for 2013: New Solutions to Old Problems
While the leadership transitions of 2012 have altered this year's political landscape, they have left the nuclear agenda for 2013 regrettably unchanged. Thankfully, this new backdrop may provide opportunities to find new solutions to old problems.10 Jan 2013
Imagining a Post-Chávez Venezuela
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's ill health continues to place question marks over the future political stability of the Bolivarian Republic, rekindling concerns that instability, power struggle and the possible out-break of violence could once again be on the horizon.10 Jan 2013
Does Decapitating Terrorist Leaderships Work?
In the last two-years, international counter-terrorism strategies have focused on decapitating terrorist leaderships. But the threat and the ideology remains. In the coming year it is important to address the psychological motivations for conducting terrorist acts.7 Jan 2013
A Year of Endemic Instability in Iraq
Sectarian and ethnic polarisation now dominates Iraq's political landscape. It could lead to toxic instability in 2013 as the Syrian civil war bolsters a restless Sunni Iraqi opposition while the Kurds continue to assert their independence from Baghdad.3 Jan 2013
Old Ally, New Headaches: Will China Turn Cold on North Korea?
With North Korea’s recent missile test capturing the world’s attention, China’s response to its old ally’s transgressions will be critical for any chance of progress. With new leadership in Beijing, is there the possibility for a change in China’s approach? 17 Dec 2012
Crime and Punishment: Why Was the Russian Defence Minister Sacked?
The recent dismissal of the Russian Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, over Putin's public objections, brings into question the Russian President's control over the Russian elite. It also reveals latent tensions between the reformers and traditionalists within Russia’s defence establishment.
12 Dec 2012
Between Barack and a Hard Place: Asian Regional Integration in the Shadow of Superpower Rivalry
The recent visit by Barack Obama to Southeast Asia is a clear elucidation of his Administration’s ambitions for the region. It is becoming clear that both China and the US are competing for regional influence, forcing the ASEAN states to walk a tightrope in their engagement with the two major powers. 28 Nov 2012
Tension on the Trigger-Line
As the eyes of the world are focused on Israel and Gaza, tension in northern Iraq between the Kurdish regional government and the Maliki administration has been mounting. Any violence between the two factions would be a disaster for Iraq. 26 Nov 2012
Turkey Defers to Egypt
Turkey’s grander regional ambitions have been thwarted by its alienation of important regional players. Now a more inward looking Turkey has adopted a supporting role as Erdogan positions himself for a run at the Turkish presidency. 23 Nov 2012
Beyond the Iron Dome: Placing Missile Defence in its Regional Context
The latest crisis between Israel and Palestine highlighted the utility of the Israel Defence Force’s Iron Dome system. It emphasises once again the importance of missile defence and has gained the attention of the United States. Still deemed as a key US priority, it sees cooperation with Israel as integral to developing future capabilities. 23 Nov 2012
A Tenuous Ceasefire in Gaza
In the latest Gaza conflict, neither side has 'won'. The ceasefire as it stands does no more than restore a fraught status quo, one that will almost certainly crumble again in the absence of dramatic political shifts in Gaza, Israel and the West Bank.23 Nov 2012
Operation Pillar of Defence: Israel’s Strategic Objectives
The ongoing Operation Pillar of Defence is the latest manifestation of Israeli efforts to disarm Hamas of its supply of long range missiles and to demonstrate to Hamas’ leadership the strategic miscalculation of using force to pursue its objectives. 19 Nov 2012
Israel's Strategic Gamble in Gaza
The engagement with Hamas and the subsequent escalation of force after Hamas’s response represents a strategic gamble by the Netanyahu government. While on the tactical level the operation has parallels with Operation Cast Lead, the wider strategic context has changed since 2009.19 Nov 2012
Tahrir Squared: Egypt, Israel and Gaza
The regional strategic context stands in contrast to 2008-2009. The government in Cairo is now much more sensitive to popular sentiment, which has been enflamed by the violence. Egypt’s reaction to the conflict will be of keen interest to regional observers. 19 Nov 2012
The Gotovina Verdict Does Not Wipe the Slate Clean
A previous judgement to indict two Croatian generals of war crimes during 1995 has been overturned on appeal. While their conduct is deemed within the reasonable demands of a military offensive, Serbian prejudices against the War Crimes Tribunal process will be reinforced. 19 Nov 2012
Crisis in Mali: Is Military Intervention Really Inevitable?
With the northern part of Mali now under militant hands, regional countries are being left with no option but to provide a credible threat to intervene militarily. But will neighbouring states be able to sustain their intervention?15 Nov 2012
Syrian Politics in Doha
The latest attempt to unite Syria’s opposition, with US and Qatari support, has led to the creation of a new Syrian coalition. To succeed, they need the buy-in of as many Syrian stakeholders as possible, as well as a concrete mechanism for governing the country and bringing the civil war to an end.14 Nov 2012
Future Reserves 2020
The UK Government has announced plans to give a greater role to Army Reserves. These proposals offer better career paths for reservists. Successful implementation will require a cultural shift within the forces, particularly among the regulars, and support from employers.13 Nov 2012
The Obama Effect Is Yet to Infect Brand-USA
This week was actually a double-victory for Barak Obama, who won both the White House and the title of first Western leader to survive re-election for some time. According to the polls, it was also a victory for America's international appeal.
8 Nov 2012
Congress and the President: Compromise or Confrontation?
Now the election is over and the composition of Congress is known, both Republicans and Democrats must come to a compromise to ensure the smooth running of US foreign policy and to avert the looming threat of sequestration.8 Nov 2012
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